Circle’s Public Debut: Will Institutions or Retail Investors Drive the Hype?

As Circle preps for its IPO, the crypto world splits into two camps—Wall Street whales eyeing stablecoin dominance, and retail traders chasing the next meme-stock moonshot.

Who’s really betting on the USDC maker? Let’s break it down.

The institutional play: BlackRock’s tokenized fund flirtation and Visa’s stablecoin pipeline suggest big money sees utility. But let’s not pretend this isn’t also about hedging against the SEC’s war on crypto.

Retail’s angle: Remember when Circle was ’just a stablecoin company’? Now it’s pitching itself as the PayPal of Web3—because nothing excites Main Street like repackaged fintech with blockchain sprinkles.

Closing thought: If this debut flops, at least we’ll finally stop hearing about ’the infrastructure play’ at every crypto happy hour.

“They settle more transaction volume across all blockchains than either Bitcoin or Ethereum, highlighting their growing dominance as the foundation of onchain activity,” Valente wrote about stablecoins.

The financial world has woken up to stablecoins’ utility as a fiat-pegged payment tool, especially given US lawmakers’ progress on legislation there (Casey has more on that if you scroll). 

Digesting Stablecon: Execs bullish on imminent financial infrastructure revolution

BlackRock’s Robbie Mitchnick said in March that while he sees tokenized money market funds as a better cash savings vehicle, stablecoins “will retain their dominance” as the instrument for payment and transaction.

Institutional vs. retail demand

Reports that BlackRock plans to buy Circle IPO shares reinforces Circle’s reputation as “the most institutionally integrated company in crypto,” argued Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research. 

“In a sector still defined by volatility and regulatory overhang, Circle is positioning itself as the ‘boring is beautiful’ trade: profitable, minimally levered, and plugged into the Core financial infrastructure of Web3,” he said.

For institutions looking for crypto exposure without balance-sheet risk, the company resembles a high-yield, regulated stablecoin utility, Sigel added. Circle’s CORE revenue, after all, comes from interest on USDC reserves — much like a money market fund, he said, but with programmability and 24/7 settlement. 

“Retail may find it harder to latch on,” the VanEck executive added. “Circle doesn’t have the same volatility, beta, meme potential or brand recognition as Coinbase.” 

Speaking of Coinbase, COIN shares started trading on the Nasdaq — via direct listing — in April 2021. The stock opened at $381 and peaked at roughly $430. Shares are now hovering around $260. 

COIN has earned a ~4% allocation in VanEck’s new Onchain Economy ETF (NODE), a fund that Sigel manages. 

Circle labels “intense and increasing competition” — i.e. from USDT issuer Tether — and “fluctuations in interest rates” among its risk factors. 

Despite that, Sigel said it’s rare to find a crypto-native company that is “profitable, growing, capital-light and central to stablecoin infrastructure.” So NODE will evaluate Circle based on its valuation and growth outlook for the stock.

Other crypto equity ETF portfolio managers will also consider a position in Circle as they navigate a growing universe of US public stocks in the segment — Exodus, Galaxy and DeFi Technologies now among them. 

“If Coinbase is one of the main storefronts in the onchain economy, Circle could be the payments pipework running beneath it: less visible, but still essential to the FLOW of capital and trust,” Sigel said.
Keep an eye on Blockworks.co — and your inbox — as our Circle IPO watch continues.

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