Bitcoin’s Risk-On Rollercoaster: Will Traders Treat It Like Just Another Stock This Week?
Bitcoin’s flirting with traditional market correlations again—just when Wall Street thought it had this ’digital gold’ thing figured out. The crypto giant can’t decide if it’s a hedge or a high-beta tech stock, and frankly, neither can the suits.
Macro mood swings hit harder than a margin call. With Fed whispers and GDP data looming, BTC’s price action might start mimicking your average S&P 500 tech ticker. How very... mainstream of it.
Watch the 200-day moving average like a hawk. Break below? Brace for ’risk-off’ narratives. Hold? Cue the ’uncorrelated asset’ champagne—until next week’s CPI report, anyway.
Funny how a $1 trillion asset class still dances to the Fed’s tune. Some decentralization, huh?
Bitcoin hit an all-time high of above $111,000 last week, rekindling bets that the OG token will set new speculatively high records. But then, on Friday, US President Donald TRUMP again shook global markets with his tariff rhetoric, this time targeting the European Union.
On Friday, Bitcoin plunged along with risk assets, approaching $107,000, defying expectations of a general upswing.
A reversal came through for cryptos after Trump announced a delay in 50% tariffs on EU imports to June 9 from June 1 earlier. The president said on Sunday that the decision to delay EU tariffs came after a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The prospect that Trump may soften his hardline approach to trade with the EU following his extension of the deadline for massive tariff measures caused gold’s haven status to decline.
The yellow metal’s price fell sharply after almost a 5% rally last week.
On the other hand, bitcoin was last changing hands closer to the $110,000 mark, rising close to 2%.
While new tariff threats show trade uncertainty is here to stay, Trump’s volatility is clear in global financial markets, and his tactic of pressuring countries for a trade deal has also been effective in recent weeks.
China was a big example; now it’s the European Union’s turn.
However, what is surprising is crypto moves. Cryptos are the least likely assets to be impacted by tariffs—at least directly, unlike stocks. While bets are strongly tilted to the upside in the long run, the short-term ride is rather unsettling for traders.
The so-called correlation of cryptos with stocks is widening and thinning at different points during Trump’s economic broadsides ride on risk-off bets. Similarly, cryptos have also rallied on safe-haven bets in line with record-setting Gold this year.
The trend indicates an initial shock and a sudden sell-off in cryptos, which mirrors the significant decline in the dollar, stocks, and other major risk assets. After the initial reaction, the digital asset market seems to pick up in line with gold and rise even as the sell-off in other risk assets continues.
Simultaneously, it is highly likely that cryptos will rise in tandem with risk assets as soon as macroeconomic conditions and Trump’s rhetoric support the markets.
Trading since April shows that pattern, with Bitcoin moves reflecting those bets. Not too long ago, when the S&P 500 hit a bear market, the OG token faced resistance to breaching the $100,000 mark.
However, an $8.6 trillion rally in the Wall Street benchmark from April lows pushed cryptos back up to new life highs.
Since Friday, when markets took a hit, the $100,000 mark has acted as a support level for the crypto. Monday trading suggests a break higher to a new record this week, with global stocks trading in the green.
This year, institutional investors have been the major drivers of crypto prices, particularly Bitcoin.
Demand from institutions in the US continues to show strong resilience. Open interest in Bitcoin futures available through CME Group has seen a 25% recovery from the year-to-date low observed in April.
In May, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows exceeding $5 billion, indicating continued interest from investors looking for regulated avenues to gain exposure to cryptocurrency.
Options trading on BlackRock’s IBIT has seen significant growth, with notional open interest currently reaching $21 billion, according to Bloomberg data.
Overall, the mood in crypto markets suggests an upside, with knee-jerk reactions likely to cause some volatility.
Elsewhere
Malaysia, Singapore Forge Blockchain Bridge for Seamless TradeThe collaboration, inked on the sidelines of the ASEAN-GCC-China CEO Roundtable, is poised to accelerate the transition from traditional paper-based processes to fully digital trade flows.
Singapore & the Future of Crypto (11 June)
Join us for a compelling fireside chat on 11 June with Jeremy Tan, entrepreneur and independent GE2025 candidate, as he sits down with Saad Ahmed, Head of APAC at Gemini, to explore what Bitcoin really is, why it matters, and how it could help shape the future of Singapore — and its people.
Whether you’re new to Bitcoin, curious about crypto, or eager to understand where the future of money is headed, this is your chance to gain clear, honest insights. No jargon. No hype. Just practical knowledge for everyday Singaporeans.
The event is free to attend, though seats are limited and subject to confirmation. If not approved, you’ll still receive a livestream LINK to attend online. Apply early to secure your spot!
Blockcast
In this episode, Taka sits down with Davide Menegaldo, a true crypto OG, to explore his journey from Bitcoin maximalism to building infrastructure at Neon EVM, which enables EVM-based dApps to run on Solana.
Davide shares insights on the evolution of blockchain infrastructure, Ethereum’s Layer 2 challenges, Solana’s rapid growth, and the future of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. He also discusses developer onboarding, AI integrations, DeFi composability, and how solana Mobile might bring Web3 to the masses.
Blockcast is hosted by Head of APAC at Ledger, Takatoshi Shibayama. Previous episodes of Blockcast can be found here, with guests like Alex Ryvkin (Rho), Hassan Ahmed (Coinbase), Sota Watanabe (Startale), Nic Young (Oh), Jacob Phillips (Lombard), Chris Yu (SignalPlus), Kathy Zhu (Mezo), Jess Zeng (Mantle), Samar Sen (Talos), Jason Choi (Tangent), Lasanka Perera (Independent Reserve), Mark Rydon (Aethir), Luca Prosperi (M^0), Charles Hoskinson (Cardano), and Yat Siu (Animoca Brands) on our recent shows.
