Crypto Bulls Nabbed the Rally—Then Panicked and Went Defensive Too Soon?

Markets ripped upward—again—while half the sector white-knuckled their stablecoin positions. Classic.

Did fear of a pullback trigger premature profit-taking? The charts scream ’FOMO,’ but wallets whisper ’trauma.’

Meanwhile, TradFi analysts still can’t tell a smart contract from a Starbucks loyalty token. Progress.

Asset	Positioning	18 Apr Price	25 Apr Price	Weekly Change	Verdict
BTC	Overweight → Defensive	$84,600	$93,300	+10.3%	✅ Caught most of the move, but exited early
ETH	Neutral → Underweight (Wed 24th)	$1,580	$1,765	+11.7%	✅ Took profit near top
SOL	Neutral	$134	$151.5	+13.1%	✅ Right to stay neutral – strong but volatile

What We Got Right ✅

We nailed the CORE trend. BTC rallied from $84.6K to over $93K, driven by strong ETF flows and macro momentum.

We downgraded ETH just after its parabolic spike. It pulled back the next day and ended the week +11.7% with signs of exhaustion.

SOL gained ~13%, boosted by its ETF and short squeezes, but remained volatile. Staying neutral avoided overexposure to drawdowns midweek.

What We Got Wrong ❌

 
Our biggest miss was trimming risk just as a record-breaking inflow day ($1B+) pushed prices higher. While the risk signals were flashing red (RSI, Bollinger), macro catalysts took over.

➡️ 
This move sparked a broad risk-on move. This wasn’t on our radar when we shifted to 60% cash, and we underestimated how fast the sentiment would flip. 

Key Lessons

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ETF flows and momentum were strong, but it was the geopolitical narrative shift that drove the breakout. Staying nimble and reactive to policy headlines is critical.

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We’ll adjust going forward by letting the profits run

🧠
From sovereign fund interest to $TRUMP token hype to regulatory optimism, narrative momentum added fuel to inflows. We’ll emphasize this more in future positioning. 

Our benchmark is a market-cap weighted index composed of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) — the three most widely held and institutionally tracked assets in the space. Weightings are determined based on each asset’s relative market capitalization at the start of the review period.

When we refer to “neutral weight,” we mean a position aligned with the benchmark weight. An “overweight” position indicates we hold a larger allocation to that asset than its benchmark weight, reflecting higher conviction or expected outperformance. Conversely, an “underweight” position means our allocation is below the benchmark weight, typically due to near-term risks or weaker conviction.