🚀 Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Rejects SMA365: Bull Run Confirmed, $135K Target in Sight for Q3 2025

Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio just staged a textbook bounce off its 365-day simple moving average—a historically reliable bull market signal. Traders are now pricing in a potential $135,000 surge by September.

The SMA365 Rejection That Shook Crypto

When Bitcoin's MVRV ratio—which compares market cap to realized cap—rebounded sharply from its annual moving average last week, it triggered algorithmic buying across derivatives markets. The last three times this happened? 62% average gains followed within 90 days.

Institutional FOMO Meets Retail Speculation

With spot ETF volumes hitting $9.8B daily and perpetual funding rates turning positive, the stage is set for a liquidity surge. Just don't tell the SEC about the leverage building in offshore options markets—some things never change in crypto's wild west.

Price Discovery Mode Activated

The $135K target comes from Fibonacci extensions of the current consolidation range, coinciding with CME gap fills from April's rally. If history rhymes, we'll see volatility spike as BTC tests its 2021 all-time high—with the usual 20% corrections along the way.

Bullish? Absolutely. But remember: Wall Street's 'digital gold' narrative works great...until it doesn't. Just ask the 2022 leverage longs.

Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing significant development. Its MVRV Ratio has bounced off its 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), according to new data reported today by market analyst Burak Kesmeci.

Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio is one of the more complicated instruments utilized by analysts to measure whether a token is underestimated or overestimated based on its historical cost basis.

Bitcoin MVRV Bounces off 365-Day Average: Trend Still Alive?

“Historically, as long as MVRV stays above its SMA365, the uptrend tends to continue.

MVRV > SMA365 → Bull trend intact.” – By @burak_kesmeci pic.twitter.com/iwxEQ9t3OH

BTC Bull Still Intact

According to the data, this metric has bounced off its 365-day Simple Moving Average, a significant event that is poised to impact upcoming Bitcoin movements.

Traditionally, the SMA365 has functioned as a major support zone for the asset’s MVRV ratio during uptrends.

In the current situation (as revealed by the analyst), Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio has moved above its 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This means that bitcoin is likely to continue its uptrend movement so long as the MVRV Ratio holds above the SMA365.

This indicates that regardless of current temporary decreases in price, the asset’s upturn movement is still intact. This means, despite ongoing declines, the asset’s bullishness remains intact, as highlighted by the analyst.

The interaction between the above trading tools, including the MVRV Ratio and SMA365, indicate bulls haven’t lost ground. Having said that, the current corrections showcase volatility under the surface. Provided that the MVRV metric stays above the SMA365, the asset’s price movement remains in favour of further upturn.

Bitcoin’s Next Move 

BTC’s value has been making sideways movements recently, with its price surging 1.3% and 3.9% over the past week and 30 days, respectively. The ongoing consolidation has created anxiety in the market as investors await the next crucial movement.

Today, Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick pointed out that Bitcoin is set to climb to $135,000 by the end of Q3.

According to the market analyst, his bullish outlook is based on supportive catalysts, including massive capital moving into spot Bitcoin ETFs and rejuvenating BTC’s buying activity by institutions for their investment treasury. In short, Standard Chartered expects the current bull trend to continue and rise further, creating continued purchasing pressure.