Fux Votes to Acquit Bolsonaro in Criminal Organization Case Amid Coup Trial – Key Takeaways from the 2025 STF Decision
- Why Did Fux Challenge the STF’s Jurisdiction?
- How Did Fux Justify Acquitting Bolsonaro’s Group?
- What About the Controversial Plea Bargain?
- Could This Lead to Case Nullification?
- What’s Next for Bolsonaro?
- FAQ: Understanding the STF’s Bolsonaro Trial
In a dramatic twist during the Supreme Federal Court (STF) trial regarding the alleged coup attempt, Minister Luiz Fux broke ranks by voting to acquit former President Jair Bolsonaro and seven other defendants of criminal organization charges. Fux argued the STF lacked jurisdiction and cited procedural violations, creating a potential roadmap for Bolsonaro’s defense to appeal to the full bench. Here’s why this dissent matters in Brazil’s high-stakes political showdown.
Why Did Fux Challenge the STF’s Jurisdiction?
Fux dropped a constitutional bombshell by contending that the STF’s First Turma (panel) wasn’t the proper venue for this case. He insisted that under Brazil’s 1988 Constitution, any trial involving presidential acts must go before the—not just a five-member panel. "This risks creating anexceptional tribunal," Fux warned, criticizing the court’s expanding use of functional prerogatives. His stance could delay proceedings if the defense files for a plenary review.
How Did Fux Justify Acquitting Bolsonaro’s Group?
The minister delivered a 40-minute forensic takedown of the prosecution’s case, asserting that the Attorney General’s Office (PGR) failed to prove three key elements of criminal organization under Law 12,850/2013:
- Stability: No evidence showed defendants operated as a permanent structure
- Premeditation: Alleged meetings didn’t demonstrate advance planning for specific crimes
- Armament: Prosecutors couldn’t link weapons directly to illicit gains
"A single criminal plan doesn’t equate to a criminal organization," Fux emphasized, drawing parallels to 2022 rulings that required proof of ongoing operations.
What About the Controversial Plea Bargain?
In a partial win for prosecutors, Fux validated—Bolsonaro’s former aide whose testimony implicated the ex-president. While agreeing the testimony was admissible, Fux noted Cid’s lawyers were present during all interrogations, countering defense claims of coercion. "The warnings about potential perjury were standard procedural reminders," he observed.
Could This Lead to Case Nullification?
Fux identified two procedural landmines:
- Venue: If the full court agrees it should’ve been a plenary case
- Defense Access: Only 10 days to review 8TB of seized data
Legal scholars are divided. "This mirrors the 2018case where procedural flaws led to retrial," noted USP Law Professor Carolina Alves. Others argue the majority will uphold jurisdiction under the court’s 2023 precedent expanding presidential accountability.
What’s Next for Bolsonaro?
With two votes still pending from Lula-appointed justices Zanin and Lúcia, analysts predict:
| Scenario | Probability | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Conviction upheld | 65% | 8-12 year sentence; appeal to plenary |
| Partial acquittal | 25% | Dropped charges but kept under house arrest |
| Full nullification | 10% | Retrial in lower court |
Bolsonaro remains defiant from his Brasília home, telling supporters via Telegram: "The truth will prevail." Meanwhile, markets showed muted reaction—the Bovespa index dipped just 0.3%, suggesting investors see this as political theater rather than systemic risk.
FAQ: Understanding the STF’s Bolsonaro Trial
Why does Fux’s dissent matter?
It creates legal grounds for Bolsonaro’s team to demand plenary review, potentially delaying final judgment by 6-18 months.
Could Bolsonaro still run for office?
Unlikely. Even if acquitted here, his 2023 electoral ban (TSE case) remains separate—though he’s vowed to challenge it.
How does this affect Lula’s government?
Minimally for now. But if the case unravels, it could energize Bolsonaro’s base ahead of 2026 elections.
