Exclusive Interview with Karen Kharmandarian: Thematic Equity Director at Mirova Reveals Top 3 Investment Trends for 2026

• The 3 Megatrends Defining This Decade
• AI Valuations: Bubble or Bargain?
• The Great Dispersion: Why Active Managers Are Cheering
• Mirova’s AI Playbook: From Fabs to Workflows
• Investing at All-Time Highs: Mirova’s Framework
• Q&A Deep Dive

In a candid discussion, Karen Kharmandarian, Director of Thematic Equity Management at Mirova, shares insights on the transformative trends shaping the investment landscape in 2026. From AI’s explosive growth to energy transition and geopolitical shifts, Kharmandarian breaks down where smart money is flowing—and why. Dive into her analysis of valuations, sector dispersion, and Mirova’s top AI holdings, including Nvidia, TSMC, and a surprising software pick trading at "attractive levels."

The 3 Megatrends Defining This Decade

When asked about structural themes driving markets, Kharmandarian doesn’t hesitate: "AI is just getting started—we’re still in the infrastructure phase with players like Nvidia and TSMC dominating. But applications will be next." She notes energy transition remains critical despite recent investor apathy, citing Europe’s dual urgency for climate action and economic sovereignty. Geopolitics rounds out her trifecta: "European tech and industrial independence from China and the U.S. isn’t optional anymore. Realignment is happening now."

AI Valuations: Bubble or Bargain?

"Are some AI stocks overpriced? Sure—look at cash-strapped small caps," Kharmandarian admits. "But mega-caps tell a different story." She highlights robust cash flows (Nvidia: $26B FY25 free cash flow), modest debt (ASML: 0.3x net debt/EBITDA), and earnings-driven rallies. "2025’s gains weren’t multiple expansion—it was EPS delivery. Now, we’re watching the pivot from chips to software." TradingView data shows the iShares Robotics and AI ETF (IRBO) trading at 24x forward earnings, below its 5-year average.

The Great Dispersion: Why Active Managers Are Cheering

Recent weeks saw AI leadership broaden beyond the "Magnificent 7." Kharmandarian calls this healthy: "When Snowflake and MongoDB start outperforming Nvidia, you know the theme is maturing. Active managers can finally add value by picking winners." CoinMarketCap notes AI-related crypto projects (FET, RNDR) saw 120%+ volatility in January—a sign of retail speculation diverging from institutional plays.

Mirova’s AI Playbook: From Fabs to Workflows

Mirova’s portfolio reveals a "picks and shovels" bias:

• Hardware: TSMC (3nm chip dominance), ASML (EUV monopoly)
• Semiconductors: Nvidia (80% AI training market share), AMD (gaining in inference)
• Data Infrastructure: Snowflake (cloud databases), Broadcom (AI networking chips)

But Kharmandarian spots opportunity in beaten-down software: "ServiceNow trades at 8x sales—half its 2021 peak—yet manages 30% organic growth. Every Fortune 500 uses it for AI workflow orchestration."

Investing at All-Time Highs: Mirova’s Framework

How does Mirova justify positions in richly valued names? "Visibility is key," she explains. "Microsoft’s $35B AI backlog or TSMC’s 3-year wafer supply agreements give us comfort." The firm uses a 3-part test: strategic moat (e.g., ASML’s IP), backlog coverage (2x revenue for top picks), and profitability durability (20%+ EBIT margins).