Betting Markets Explode as Trump Pardons Binance Founder Changpeng Zhao

Gamblers just hit the jackpot—and Washington's establishment just got another middle finger.

The Ultimate Disruption Play

PredictIt and Polymarket saw furious action this week as speculators piled into pardon contracts. Odds swung from longshot to near-certainty in under 48 hours. This isn't just betting—it's a brutal referendum on regulatory overreach.

Zhao’s Legacy and the Crypto Pardon Wave

The Binance founder’s four-month sentence always felt disproportionate to the alleged crimes. Now Trump’s clemency reinforces what crypto natives knew all along: traditional justice moves too slowly for the digital age. Watch for a cascade of similar motions as other crypto executives seize the momentum.

Market Reactions and the New Political Calculus

BNB ripped upward on the news—because of course it did. Traders aren’t just betting on a man; they’re betting against a system. The real play? Positioning for the next regulatory showdown. Because in modern finance, the fastest ROI still comes from gaming the regulators, not serving customers.

Love it or hate it—this pardon proves once again: in the clash between code and law, code wins every time.

Polymarket Puts CZ Ahead

Polymarket’s numbers show strong speculative interest in Zhao’s fate. A 36% share of bettors is a large lead in a market where votes are driven by opinion and information, not official process.

Based on reports, the poll reflects what some traders expect rather than any formal signal from the WHITE House. Prediction markets can move fast when new facts appear, and their prices are watched because they capture a slice of public expectation.

Congressman George Santos and entrepreneur Roger Ver also made the list, each drawing 10% support from bettors for a Trump pardon. Other names listed by participants include Steve Bannon, Rudy Giuliani, and Sean “Diddy” Combs.

Source: Polymarket

Legal Background And Public Comments

Zhao pleaded guilty in November 2023 to failing to maintain an effective anti-money laundering (AML) program at Binance.

That conviction led to his resignation as CEO. Reports have disclosed that Zhao publicly hinted at the possibility of a pardon after US President Donald Trump’s controversial December 2024 pardon of Hunter Biden,

He also confirmed on a podcast in May that he had formally filed a pardon application with the White House.

Key Democratic lawmakers responded quickly after news of Zhao’s pardon filing and related business moves.

Senators led by Elizabeth Warren addressed a letter to White House Counsel David Warrington and Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche asking for clarity on the status of any pardon.

Reports cite concerns about a separate $2 billion deal announced by Binance, Emirati firm MGX, and World Liberty Financial (WLF) involving a stablecoin called USD1, which those senators said raises questions given the overlap of business ties and a pardon request.

Polymarket’s snapshot puts Zhao well ahead of other high-profile names, but a market position is not a legal verdict. Pardons are political acts made by the president; they can be influenced by many forces, and not all rumored candidates end up receiving one.

Betting data shows where attention is focused, and it can affect perceptions, but it does not determine the White House’s choice.

Featured image from Entrepreneur, chart from TradingView