Halvings: Pure Hype or Market Catalyst? Analyst Reveals Why Bitcoin’s Timing Defies Expectations

Bitcoin's halving events have long been touted as crypto's ultimate bullish trigger—but one analyst claims this cycle plays by different rules.

The Supply Shock Myth?

While mainstream narratives push the scarcity narrative, institutional adoption patterns and macro conditions might be rewriting the playbook. Mining rewards get slashed in half, yet ETF flows and corporate treasuries now move markets more than retail speculation ever did.

Timing Isn't Everything

Past performance never guarantees future results—especially when Wall Street gets involved. Traditional finance finally 'gets' digital gold, but their entry reshapes volatility patterns and decouples price action from historical halving cycles.

The New Calculus

Forget moon math. Today's Bitcoin moves on Fed policy whispers, blackrock balance sheets, and the occasional Elon tweet. The halving still matters—just not in the way your favorite crypto influencer promised.

Maybe the real scarcity play was the friends we made in the futures market all along.

Three Cycles Not Halvings

According to analyst James Checkmate, Bitcoin’s history fits into three broad cycles rather than a rhythm set by halvings.

He calls them an adoption cycle from 2011 to 2018, an adolescence cycle from 2018 to 2022, and a maturity cycle from 2022 onward.

Checkmate argues these phases were driven by changing adoption patterns and market structure, not by the block reward cuts that happen every four years.

He even said bitcoin is “the only other endgame asset alongside gold,” suggesting the current phase could stretch longer than many expect.

In my opinion, Bitcoin has experienced three cycles, and they are not anchored around the halvings.

They are anchored around the trends in adoption and market structure, with the 2017 top, and 2022 bottom being the transition pointsRetail early adoptionWild West, Boom &… pic.twitter.com/3rbUUpnwen

— _Checkmate(@_Checkmatey_) August 26, 2025

Bitcoin Halving Pattern Still In Play

Reports have disclosed that the halving theory remains popular because markets have peaked in the year after previous halvings — 2013, 2017, and 2021 are often pointed to as examples.

The narrative goes that a supply shock from reduced block rewards, combined with demand, pushes prices higher, and observers say the pattern seems on track for 2025.

That view keeps a simple timing model alive: halving, then peak the next year. It’s tidy and it’s easy to model, which is why many traders still use it.

Based on reports, some voices now put more weight on liquidity and institutional flows than on calendar-based events.

Analysts say the cycle is not officially over until the market sees positive returns next year. The four-year cycle may be finished.

They added that business cycle dynamics explain the peaks and troughs better than halving dates. Market veterans keep it practical: cycles never truly disappear — people buy, prices rise, then sellers clear the gains, and we start again.

How long the bullish leg runs depends on where liquidity sits and how much new capital arrives.

$BTC long-term holders have already realized more profit this cycle than in all but one prior cycle (2016–17), highlighting elevated sell-side pressure. Taken alongside other signals, this suggests the market has entered a late phase of the cycle. pic.twitter.com/PHXkOizXhz

— glassnode (@glassnode) August 26, 2025

Meanwhile, Glassnode’s late-cycle signal is a warning, and it was made public on Aug. 20. Traders who follow on-chain metrics point to elevated selling and reduced accumulation as signs to tighten risk.

At the same time, proponents of the halving-linked model note the historical pattern: bull peaks occurred after the halving in multiple cycles. Both sides use hard dates and numbers — years like 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021, 2022, 2025 and 2026 — to make their cases.

Featured image from Equiti, chart from TradingView