Is The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Shattered Or Primed For Another Epic Rally?
Bitcoin's legendary four-year rhythm faces its ultimate stress test—defying historical patterns while flirting with unprecedented territory.
The Halving Hangover Myth
Traditionalists cling to post-halving boom cycles like sacred texts, but 2025 laughs in the face of calendar-based predictions. Supply shocks matter less when institutional tidal waves rewrite all the rules.
Institutional Tsunami vs. Retail FOMO
BlackRock's ETF monster devours coins faster than miners print them—while Main Street still scratches its head about private keys. Wall Street's gambling with house money now; your grandma's savings account never stood a chance.
Macro Mayhem & Regulatory Roulette
Interest rate whiplash and political theater should've cratered the rally. Instead, Bitcoin treats bad news like rocket fuel—because nothing says 'store of value' like outperforming every asset class while politicians flail.
The cynical truth? Finance hates patterns it can't monetize—so of course they declared the cycle dead right before it resurrects harder than ever.
Developments That Threaten The 4-Year Cycle
The 4-year cycle coincides with the Bitcoin halving, which happens every four years when block rewards for miners are cut in half. Historically, the bull market has only begun after the Bitcoin halving is completed, with the BTC price hitting a new all-time high a year after the halving. Then, the bear market follows after all-time high levels and continues until the next halving. This has been the case for the last three cycles, until 2024, when everything changed.
The year 2024 was the last halving year, and the expectation was that the Bitcoin price would hit new all-time highs a year later, in 2025. However, with the advent of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which were approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January 2024, the BTC price exploded and soared to new all-time highs months before the scheduled halving.
As the year progressed, so did the BTC price, and after the halving was completed on April 20, the price pushed forward. By December 2024, the price had already crossed $100,000, almost doubling the value of its $69,000 all-time high from the previous cycle.
Not only are Spot bitcoin ETFs driving the BTC price, but there was also the entrance of Bitcoin treasury companies. This was started by Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy), which started buying BTC in 2020. Fast forward to 2025, and the company now holds over $74 billion worth of BTC, with the latest buy of 430 BTC announced on Monday.
Given the entrance of Spot Bitcoin ETFs and over 100 Bitcoin treasury companies, none of which have existed in previous cycles, it seems BTC has now entered into uncharted territory. This could effectively end the 4-year cycle with billions of dollars pouring into the market at an unprecedented rate.
What If The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Is Still Intact?
Frank Fetter, a Quant at Vibe Capital Management, has expressed what could be next if the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is intact. As he points out, traditionally, there has been an average of 1,060 between Bitcoin making a bottom and then making a top in the bull market.
Currently, BTC is only approximately 1,000 days from its 2022 bottom, meaning there are still a couple of months to go. This could mean that there is some runway left for Bitcoin to hit new all-time highs before the next bear market rolls around. “If the traditional four-year cycle continues, the next 100 days could be interesting,” Fetter stated.
