Bitcoin Spot Market Runs Dry: Relentless Off-Exchange Buying Fuels Unstoppable Rally
The great Bitcoin vacuum is here—exchanges are bleeding supply as institutional buyers hoard coins like digital Scrooge McDucks.
Spot markets are running on fumes
While Wall Street analysts debate 'fair value,' cold wallets keep swallowing BTC at a pace that'd make a black hole jealous. No fancy derivatives, no leverage—just pure, unfiltered capital plowing into self-custody.
The OTC endgame
When Coinbase's order book looks thinner than a crypto startup's runway, you know we've entered Phase 2: The Whales' Feast. These aren't your 2017 retail traders—these are pension funds and sovereign wealth plays writing nine-figure checks.
Bonus jab: Meanwhile, traditional finance is still trying to short BTC with paper contracts while the actual asset vanishes from circulation. Good luck covering those positions, guys.
Supply Shortage Deepens As Bitcoin Accumulation Persists
According to analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s supply dynamics continue to paint a bullish long-term picture despite recent price volatility. Adler highlights that coins have been consistently bought off exchanges for nearly a year and a half, significantly reducing the available liquidity in the spot market. This persistent outflow has gradually created a supply shortage, which has been a key driver behind Bitcoin’s impressive growth over the past months.
This accumulation trend remains active, with investors — particularly long-term holders and institutional players — continuing to withdraw BTC from exchanges at a steady pace. As liquidity dries up, even moderate demand can trigger outsized price moves, which has fueled much of Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.
However, Adler also points out a growing challenge: as Bitcoin approaches historically overvalued levels, selling pressure is beginning to surface. Short-term holders and profit-takers are becoming more active, especially as BTC tests key psychological price levels. This friction between dwindling supply and increasing profit-taking behavior could lead to heightened volatility in the coming weeks.
If accumulation continues to outpace supply inflows, the broader uptrend could remain intact. Yet, the overvaluation signals suggest a period of consolidation or corrective moves is necessary to reset market conditions before Bitcoin attempts another push toward new highs.
Price Analysis: Key Levels To Watch
Bitcoin is currently trading at $114,937 after facing a sharp correction from its recent all-time high of $123,000. The daily chart shows that BTC lost the critical $115,724 support level, which has now turned into immediate resistance. The price is attempting to retest this level, but the rejection from the 50-day moving average around $115,100 suggests that bulls are struggling to regain momentum.
The price structure reveals a clear breakdown from the tight range formed between $115K and $122K, followed by a lower high formation that indicates weakening bullish strength. Volume has been declining during this rebound attempt, signaling a lack of strong buying interest at current levels. The 100-day moving average at $108,100 serves as the next major support if BTC fails to reclaim $115K.
On the upside, reclaiming the $115,724 level with strong volume WOULD be a bullish sign, potentially triggering a move back toward the $120K-$122K resistance zone. However, failure to break above this level could confirm a bearish retest and increase the likelihood of BTC revisiting the $112K-$110K support range in the coming sessions.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
