Bitcoin’s Legendary Top-Spotting Indicator Nears Flashpoint Again—Will History Repeat in 2025?

That uncanny Bitcoin signal—the one that nailed all three major 2025 peaks—is twitching back to life. Traders are sweating.

When this indicator flashes red, it's not a suggestion—it's a financial obituary for bull runs. And right now? The alarm's booting up.

The Oracle of Crypto Tops

No one names it—the mystique is half its power—but institutional whales treat its movements like gospel. Last three times it triggered? BTC dumped harder than a bagholder's portfolio after leverage gets liquidated.

Timing the Inevitable

Market cycles rhyme until they don't. But with this indicator's track record, even crypto bros are side-eyeing their 'HODL' tattoos. (Pro tip: Past performance actually does predict future results—when hedge funds start reverse-engineering your TA.)

One more push—one more greedy overextension—and the bell tolls. Just in time for Wall Street's annual 'blockchain is dead' report.

Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Is Currently Shooting Up

In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has talked about the latest the trend in the bitcoin NVT Golden Cross. The NVT Golden Cross is an indicator that’s based on an on-chain metric known as the NVT Ratio.

The NVT Ratio tells us about how the market cap of the cryptocurrency compares against its transaction volume. The indicator is based on the idea that the blockchain’s ability to transact coins (as represented by the transfer volume) could be looked at as its fair value.

When the value of the metric is high, it means the value of the asset (that is, the market cap) is high compared to this ability to transact coins. Such a trend can imply that the coin may be overbought.

On the other hand, the indicator being low suggests the market cap could potentially have room to grow with respect to the transaction volume. This kind of trend can imply a rebound to the upside may be due for the cryptocurrency.

Now, the NVT Golden Cross, the actual metric of interest here, is a Bollinger-band like indicator that signals whether the NVT Ratio is close to a top or bottom. The metric works by comparing the short-term trend of the NVT Ratio to its long-term one.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross over the year 2025 so far:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has recently been following a trajectory of rapid growth, implying the market cap has sharply been increasing relative to the transaction volume.

The indicator has now reached a value of 1.98. From the chart, it’s visible that this isn’t too far from the 2.2 level (boundary of red zone). Historically, the indicator crossing above this level has generally signaled overheated conditions for the cryptocurrency.

So far, the pattern has held in 2025 as well, with Bitcoin observing local tops alongside each of the three instances where the NVT Golden Cross breached the 2.2 mark.

“If the metric crosses 2.2 again, it may hint at a local top,” notes the quant. “But don’t rush to exit—historically, the metric has stayed above 2.2 for several days.” It now remains to be seen how BTC and the NVT Golden Cross WOULD develop in the near future.

BTC Price

Bitcoin attempted a MOVE toward the all-time high (ATH) just earlier, but it seems the effort failed and the coin has fallen back to its range, as its price trades around $108,000.