Bitcoin Open Interest Rebounds – But Trails Far Behind 2024’s Leverage Mania

Bitcoin's open interest just flipped green again—but don't break out the champagne yet.

Open interest measures the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, and its recent uptick suggests traders are cautiously dipping back into BTC futures. Still, today's numbers look downright conservative compared to the reckless leverage bonanza of early 2024.

Remember 2024? When every crypto bro with a Binance account thought they'd cracked the perpetual futures money printer? Good times—until the liquidations started.

This time around, the market's moving with less hopium and more hesitation. Maybe traders finally learned that leverage works both ways—or maybe Wall Street's algos just haven't finished reloading yet.

Either way, the real story isn't the modest open interest rebound—it's how far we've fallen from the degenerate heights of last year's casino economics.

Bulls Eye Breakout As Bitcoin Nears All-Time Highs

Bitcoin is approaching a critical moment as it flirts with its $112,000 all-time high. With bullish momentum accelerating, many investors believe the market is preparing for a new expansive phase. However, as BTC trades near record levels, the risks of a failed breakout grow. Sentiment remains broadly positive, supported by rising equity markets and a reduction in macroeconomic uncertainty. Yet, analysts warn that unless Bitcoin decisively clears resistance soon, the probability of a correction into lower levels will increase.

The US stock market hitting new all-time highs adds to the optimism, often acting as a tailwind for crypto. Still, a breakout above $112K will require more than technical strength — it needs a catalyst. Axel Adler points to the derivatives market for early signs of conviction. Open interest (OI) growth, which saw record spikes of 79% in spring 2024, 59% in autumn, and 36% in May, has now moved from -9% to +5% over the past 30 days. This shift suggests traders are cautiously re-entering the market, though with less aggressive leverage.

Bears, meanwhile, are expected to defend the ATH zone. For bulls to succeed, a strong narrative — such as presidential support, dovish Fed signals, or macro triggers — may be necessary to awaken risk appetite and send bitcoin decisively into price discovery.

BTC Price Action: Near Breakout Point

The 12-hour BTC/USDT chart shows Bitcoin attempting a critical breakout above the $109,300 resistance level. After multiple rejections in June and early July, BTC has once again surged, printing a strong candle that now flirts with price discovery just below the $112,000 all-time high. Momentum has shifted in favor of the bulls after a successful defense of the $103,600 support zone, which coincided with a bounce off the 100 and 50-day SMAs, currently converging around the $106,200 level.

This moving average cluster acted as dynamic support, validating short-term bullish strength. Volume also increased slightly during the recent push, a positive signal after weeks of fading conviction. A clean and sustained break above $109,300 WOULD open the path toward retesting ATHs and potentially entering a new expansive phase.

However, traders should be cautious of potential fakeouts. This level has acted as a firm resistance for nearly two months, and a rejection could send BTC back toward the $106,000 support cluster or even the $103,600 level. For now, bulls hold the upper hand, but follow-through above resistance with rising volume will be key to confirm a true breakout and continuation toward new highs.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView