Bitcoin Outshines Wall Street’s Finest Amid Iran-Israel Tensions—Here’s Why

Bitcoin just flexed its resilience muscle—again. While traditional markets wobbled during the Iran-Israel conflict, the crypto king held firmer than a Wall Street banker's grip on a bonus.

The Unshakable Asset: No gold, no bonds, no blue-chip stocks—BTC weathered the geopolitical storm like a digital Fort Knox. Analysts nod as it dodges volatility better than hedge funds dodging accountability.

Why It Matters: When missiles fly, money seeks shelter. Bitcoin’s proving it’s not just 'digital gold'—it’s gold with a disruptor's edge. Meanwhile, legacy finance? Still waiting for that 'risk management' memo.

The Punchline: Crypto’s anti-fragile narrative just got a warzone stress test. And Wall Street’s 'safe havens'? Let’s just say they’re busy recalculating.

Bitcoin Volatility Drops Below Stocks

Based on reports from Bitwise Europe, Bitcoin’s 60-day realized volatility sat at about 27–28% as of June 23. That figure trails the S&P 500 at roughly 30% and lags behind the Nasdaq 100 NEAR 35%.

GM

I don’t now who needs to hear this but #bitcoin continues to exhibit a lower realized vol than major US equity indices despite record high geopolitical uncertainty. pic.twitter.com/nnTW08hera

— André Dragosch, PhD(@Andre_Dragosch) June 23, 2025

Calm Amid Geopolitical Tension

The recent low volatility is especially clear against rising Middle East clashes. News of US bombing in Iran knocked the crypto down 6% to under $100,000. In past crises—like the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022—Bitcoin’s 60-day realized volatility jumped to around 60–65%. Back then, traders sold in panic. Now, most buyers and sellers seem to hold their ground.

Based on reports from Glassnode analysts, long-term holders have hoarded a record 14.53 million BTC on a 30-day average as of June 23. That’s about 70% of the crypto asset’s full 21 million supply.

Over 30% of coins in circulation rest with just 216 large entities—think ETFs, exchanges, custodians, and corporate treasuries. When so many coins sit idle, there’s less to fuel frantic trading.

Market veterans like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and OSL’s Eugene Cheung see this calm as a base for higher prices. They predict Bitcoin will clear $100,000 and stay there as central banks print cash and big investors pile in.

Some analysts even eye levels above $150,000 by the end of 2025. Such forecasts rest on steady demand and shrinking supply on exchanges.

The lower swings hint that bitcoin is maturing, with more people treating it like a regular asset. A quieter market can draw in more cautious investors. But it won’t stay this tame forever.

Big holders could still spark big moves if they sell large chunks. For now, Bitcoin’s steadier path may mark a turning point—one that blends old-school market behavior with the new forces shaping crypto.

Featured image from Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images, chart from TradingView