Bitcoin HODLers Dig In: Long-Term Holdings Hit 2-Year Peak as Conviction Grows

Forget trading—Bitcoin's true believers are locking in like never before. On-chain data reveals a surge in long-term holdings not seen since mid-2023, signaling hardened confidence despite Wall Street's usual hand-wringing.

HODL wave intensifies

The metric—tracking coins untouched for over a year—just flashed its highest reading since the bear market depths. No fireworks, no press releases—just quiet accumulation by those who remember crypto winters past.

Meanwhile, traditional finance still can't decide if Bitcoin's a fraud or the future. Maybe try both? The market's voting with private keys.

Bitcoin Faces Crucial Test Amid Global Tensions and Record HODL Levels

Bitcoin is trading at a critical level as global tensions rise and macroeconomic uncertainty shapes the broader financial landscape. With US–China trade disputes intensifying and the bond market flashing warning signs, traditional and crypto markets alike are on edge. Yet, bitcoin continues to show resilience, holding above $104,000 as investors await a decisive move. Despite the strength, a breakout above the $112,000 all-time high remains crucial to confirm the continuation of the bullish structure.

Analysts remain split. Some see the current consolidation as a healthy pause before another leg up, while others point to growing volatility and fading retail demand as signs of an incoming correction. Still, one key metric suggests underlying strength.

According to top analyst Axel Adler, the bitcoin exchange Flows to Network Activity Ratio is highlighting a powerful on-chain signal: the current HODL level is at its highest point in the past two years. This ratio compares BTC movements on exchanges to overall blockchain activity and, when low, indicates that fewer coins are being sent to exchanges for selling. The elevated HODL behavior signals that long-term holders are committed, reducing circulating supply and potentially setting the stage for a supply-driven breakout.

Historically, such conditions have preceded major rallies, especially when combined with rising network activity and reduced exchange inflows. While external risks remain and short-term sentiment appears cautious, this long-term holding trend could help support higher prices if macroeconomic conditions stabilize. For now, Bitcoin remains poised between potential breakout and retrace, with the next few weeks likely to define its medium-term direction.

BTC Price Analysis: Tight Range Signals Incoming Volatility

Bitcoin is currently trading around $104,892 on the 4-hour chart, caught in a tightening range between key support at $103,600 and resistance at $109,300. After failing to hold above $110K in late May, BTC has pulled back and now hovers just above the 200 SMA, which aligns closely with the $103,600 support zone, making this level a critical area to defend.

The 34 EMA and 50 SMA are starting to flatten, indicating a lack of clear trend direction, while the 100 and 200 SMAs are acting as dynamic support zones. The price is now compressing between the short- and long-term moving averages, suggesting a buildup before a breakout. A decisive move above $106,000 WOULD signal renewed bullish momentum and likely lead to another test of the $109,300 resistance. On the flip side, a breakdown below $103,600 could trigger a sharper retracement.

Volume has been relatively low during this consolidation, a common sign that a larger MOVE is brewing. Traders should watch for a spike in volume to confirm the next direction. For now, BTC remains range-bound, and the next few sessions will likely define whether bulls regain control or bears take over short-term momentum.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView