Bitcoin Repeats History—Again—With Uncanny Cycle Resemblance

Bitcoin’s price action is pulling a déjà vu—mimicking past bull cycles with eerie precision after smashing records earlier this year. Here’s why traders are both thrilled and nervous.

Patterns don’t lie (until they do). The king of crypto is retracing its 2017 and 2021 playbook—consolidation, then parabolic rallies—while Wall Street analysts scramble to justify their late-to-the-party price targets.

Bonus jab: Meanwhile, traditional finance still thinks ’HODL’ is a typo.

Familiar Trend Observed In Bitcoin’s Upswing

Bitcoin’s ongoing upward trend does not seem like it’s coming to an end anytime soon. A recent report from Alphractal, an advanced on-chain data and investment platform, shows that the flagship asset has broken its all-time high for the third time in this cycle, reflecting the robust strength of the ongoing rally.

According to the analytics platform, this recurring milestone has prompted fresh comparisons to the previous market cycle, in which similar breakout sequences signaled the beginning of further parabolic movements. With BTC charting a course that mirrors past bull cycle runs, it increases the possibility that the ongoing uptrend might be far from over.

Data from the bitcoin ROI Per Cycle, a key metric that measures BTC’s overall performance each cycle, reveals that the asset has increased sharply by over 600% since its low in November 2022. However, this notable growth is still significantly behind compared to past bull market runs that preceded rallies in the thousands range.

In the previous cycle, particularly between 2019 and 2021, BTC recorded more than 2,000% growth, whereas in the 2015- 2017 bull market cycle, the asset experienced an 8,500% rally all the way to the top.

Looking at the chart, each cycle seems to have performed less than the previous ones. The trend suggests that even though Bitcoin’s rally has not finished yet, it is likely to record gains lower than the last cycle.

In addition to the deteriorating performance, Alphractal highlighted that the flagship asset has never before reached a new all-time high after several months of separation throughout a single bull cycle. This marks a noticeable shift in its dynamics as the market grows more complex and necessitates the use of robust metrics and intelligent data to comprehend and predict new developments.

No Sign Of Profit-Taking In The Current Surge

While BTC has risen sharply to new all-time highs, selling pressure has greatly reduced as investors choose to hold on to their coins, capitalizing on the ongoing rally. Glassnode, a leading on-chain analytics platform, reported a massive drop in profit-taking amid strong spikes, reflecting growing conviction in the asset’s short-term prospects and a continued uptrend.

After hitting a new all-time high, the total profit-taking volume dropped to approximately $1 billion. Interestingly, this volume is less than half the amount realized when BTC initially reached $100,000 last December, which was $2.1 billion. Glassnode noted that the profit realization was much more subdued despite a higher price.