Dogecoin On-Chain Metrics Flash Bullish Signals—Is a 2025 Rally Imminent?

Network activity spikes and whale accumulation patterns suggest DOGE might be gearing up for its next meme-powered surge. Chainalysis data shows a 47% increase in large transactions (>$100k) over the past fortnight—typically a precursor to price volatility.

Key indicators to watch:

- Exchange netflow turning negative (more coins leaving than entering)

- 30-day MVRV ratio crossing into positive territory

- Social dominance metrics hitting 3-month highs

While the ’people’s crypto’ continues to defy fundamental analysis, these on-chain signals have historically preceded 50%+ moves. Just don’t tell the Wall Street suits—they’re still trying to price in ’doge years’ versus fiscal quarters.

Dogecoin Whales Fuel Bullish Momentum

Martinez points to the segment of wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion Doge – the cohort often described as “mid-tier whales.” Their combined balance stood at roughly 24.6 billion DOGE on April 13 but had climbed to just under 26.0 billion DOGE by May 13, according to the grey area in the whale accumulation chart.

The difference of about 1.4 billion DOGE – worth a little over $300 million at prevailing spot prices – confirms that large holders have absorbed significant supply even as the token rallied. At the time of the snapshot the cohort controlled 25.97 billion DOGE, although the value already peaked at roughly 26.5 billion DOGE on May 10.

Network activity appears to be following the money. A second Santiment dashboard shows daily active addresses vaulting from the low five-figure area in mid-April to peaks north of 680,000 on May 12-13, before easing to 69,200 on the May print 15.

Transaction volume in US dollar terms has mirrored the surge, spiking to $1.21 billion and still holding an elevated $549.96 million on the latest reading. Perhaps most telling for market depth, the count of individual transfers worth more than$1 million – plotted in purple on Martinez’s chart – ballooned during the same window, underscoring that the activity surge is being driven in no small part by large-ticket trades rather than retail churn.

DOGE Prices Faces Key Resistance

While the tape of flows looks constructive, the price chart argues that the market remains at a critical juncture. On the three-day candle chart shared by Martinez, DOGE is trading at $0.2277 and pressing into a supply wall that caps the band between roughly $0.24 and $0.26.

The horizontal zone – shaded in grey – was sturdy support throughout December 2024 and became resistance after the mid-February breakdown. It has since produced several clean rejections, each marked by Martinez’s downward arrows. Another breach attempt earlier this week pierced the band intraday but failed to settle above it, leaving the level intact.

Should buyers force a decisive close above $0.2600 on a day basis, the chart shows a vacuum up to the psychological $0.3000 handle, a MOVE Martinez argues “could spark a new bull run.” Conversely, failure to clear the ceiling risks a swing back toward the mid-$0.1700 area where the April basing structure began.

Taken together, the on-chain accumulation, the jump in large transactions and the swell in address activity give fundamental backing to the bid under DOGE. Whether that demand can overpower the well-defined $0.24-$0.26 barricade will determine if the recent accumulation marks the opening salvo of a larger upside campaign or merely another range-bound flurry. For now, the whales have made their bet; the market is waiting to see if price will follow.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.22.