Bitcoin to $1M? Two Global Shocks That Could Send It There

Forget moonshots—Bitcoin’s next stop could be seven figures. Here’s what might light the fuse.

Black Swan #1: The Dollar Cracks

When the world’s reserve currency stumbles, crypto becomes the financial lifeboat. Hyperinflation? Capital controls? Watch institutional money flood into BTC like it’s 2021 on steroids.

Black Swan #2: Nation-State Adoption

One major economy flips the script—maybe a BRICS country tired of SWIFT delays, or a government hedging against sanctions. Cue the FOMO tsunami from retail and sovereign wealth funds alike.

Sure, Wall Street will still call it a ’speculative asset’ right up until their clients demand exposure. By then? The rocket might have left the launchpad.

Strong Tailwinds For Bitcoin

Hayes argues that tighter capital controls around the world will drive investors toward a borderless asset. He also warns that US Treasurys are poised for “devaluation” as the Treasury’s mountain of debt keeps growing. If both trends play out, Hayes says, bitcoin will win over a lot of money that can’t move freely in traditional markets.

Election Year And Policy Swings

He picks 2028 as his target year because that’s when the next US presidential vote happens. A pro‑crypto administration could lift Bitcoin’s status even more. But a government that digs in on rules could slow things down. Hayes points to the TRUMP years as an example of a friendly stance—and hints that a different leader might flip the script.

In Europe, authorities seem keen to tighten their grip on crypto use. Hayes warns that the European Central Bank may try to clamp down in ways that only push people toward digital coins. Yet China has steered clear of banning private Bitcoin ownership, knowing that enforcing such a rule would backfire and fuel underground markets.

This isn’t Hayes’s first big price bet. Last month he said $100,000 was back in reach. Before that, he eyed the mid‑$70,000 zone as a likely low point. Other voices in finance are even more bullish.

Fidelity has floated seven‑figure targets for the next ten years. And Michael Saylor, who leads Strategy and has the largest Bitcoin stash among public firms, sees Bitcoin climbing to a $10 trillion market value—working out to about $500,000 per coin—and he’s talked about $13 million by 2045.

To reach $1 million by 2028, Bitcoin’s market capitalization WOULD need to swell to roughly $20 trillion. That’s almost twice the size of gold’s market today. It means a flood of new buyers, from big institutions to regular savers.

Any serious regulatory crackdown or a snap rise in bond yields could throw a wrench in those plans. But if global money keeps seeking shelter and fiat currencies keep weakening, Hayes’s upside scenario could happen faster than many expect.

Featured image from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView