Altseason Won’t Happen Until These 3 Signals Flash Green, Crypto Analyst Warns
Bitcoin’s rally grabbing headlines? Wake us up when the alts start moving. According to one seasoned analyst, true altseason requires three make-or-break metrics—none of which involve CNBC anchors suddenly ’getting it.’
The Trinity of Altcoin Liftoff:
1. BTC Dominance Breakdown: When Bitcoin’s market share crumbles below 40%, capital floods into smaller coins like clockwork. Until then, enjoy the ’stablecoin season.’
2. ETH/BTC Pair Reversal: Ethereum must flip its big brother’s ratio—because if the smart contract king can’t rally, what hope do the shitcoins have?
3. Derivatives Frenzy: Perpetual swap funding rates turning sustainably positive across mid-cap alts. Because nothing screams ’market irrationality’ like traders paying 0.1% daily just to hold a meme coin.
So next time someone yells ’ALTSEASON INCOMING,’ ask for the receipts. Or just wait for the hedge fund interns to start shilling their bags on Twitter—that usually works too.
Altseason Still On Ice: What Needs To Change
The altseason defines a period in the crypto bull market where altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin. It is an entirely anticipated event, presenting investors with the opportunity to register massive profits due to the smaller market caps of altcoins compared to Bitcoin.
However, the potential of altseason in the current bull cycle has been previously questioned, with analysts citing the rising number of altcoins compared to previous cycles.
In contributing to this discourse, Puckrin states that an altseason usually occurs 320 days after the Bitcoin halving, a target that has been met following the last halving in April 2024. However, Pukrin explains an altseason for this current bull cycle can only occur following the development of three crucial signals.
Firstly, the analyst states that Bitcoin dominance must fall below 54%. The Bitcoin dominance measures BTC’s share of the total crypto market. It represents the percentage of crypto investment that is in Bitcoin.
Notably, an altseason only occurs after Bitcoin Dominance begins to fall, indicating that investors are rotating their capital into altcoins. Nic Puckrin explains that Bitcoin Dominance must stop rising and fall below the 54% threshold to confirm this rotation.
However, despite the need for this fall in BTC Dominance, the Coin Bureau boss further states that Bitcoin must break above its current all-time high to induce an altcoin bull market. However, the premier cryptocurrency must achieve this feat without pulling all the liquidity from the market.
It is worth noting that in prior cycles, an altcoin market rally comes after Bitcoin establishes market dominance, then consolidates, giving room for investors to move their liquidity to lower-cap speculative assets.
Nic Puckrin’s final condition states the US Federal Reserve must cease all Quantitative Tightening (QT) measures and confirm incoming rate cuts to counter the current interest rates above 4%. In doing so, the Fed can induce in rise in market liquidity, which is necessary for altseason.
Crypto Market Overview
At the time of writing, the total crypto market has now reclaimed the $3 trillion mark following the general bullish swing in the past week. Meanwhile, market trading volume is down by 16.82% and valued at $68.83 billion.
Notably, the altcoin season index is still at 21, indicating that Bitcoin still outperforms a large percentage of the altcoin market, and there is no altseason in view for now. Historically, altseasons occur when the index is above 75, which indicates broad-based strength across altcoins.
