Bitcoin Shakes Off Weak Hands as MVRV Flips Green—Time to Buy or Just Another False Dawn?

After months of blood-streaked charts and margin call meltdowns, Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio just punched through zero—a classic signal that panic sellers have finally been flushed out.

The capitulation cleanse is complete

When MVRV turns positive, it means current prices are trading above the average on-chain cost basis—translation: most holders are back in profit territory. Cue the institutional research notes proclaiming ’the bottom is in’ (just ignore their identical Q4 2022 memos).

Liquidity vampires awaken

With leveraged longs now less likely to get liquidated by a 3% wiggle, algorithmic traders are circling like Wall Street sharks who smell a distressed asset. Watch for exchange reserves to drain as sidelined capital creeps back—until the next ’black swan’ sends everyone scrambling for Tether’s printing hotline.

So is this the real deal or another head fake? Check the futures premiums, follow the stablecoin flows, and maybe—just maybe—consider that crypto winters don’t last forever. Even in a market where ’fundamentals’ means which influencer memed a shitcoin today.

Bitcoin Holds Firm As Market Shifts Into Recovery Phase

Bitcoin is currently facing a critical challenge as it struggles to reclaim the psychologically important $100,000 level. Over the past two weeks, bulls have successfully pushed the price above key resistance zones such as $90,000 and $96,000, signaling renewed strength. However, the momentum is being tempered by growing macroeconomic uncertainty, including persistent fears of a global recession and continued conflict between the US and China, two factors that heavily influence investor sentiment across all markets.

Despite these concerns, Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics are flashing signs of a structural shift in market behavior. According to Axel Adler, the Year-over-Year True MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) has returned to positive territory. This means that, on average, the current market price is now higher than the average price at which coins were acquired over the past year. As a result, most holders are in profit.

This change marks a crucial psychological turning point. The pressure from panic sellers is easing as fewer participants are motivated to lock in losses. Instead, we are seeing rising holder confidence and reduced sell-side activity. Adler notes that this transition often aligns with the start of a recovery phase and paves the way for more sustainable growth.

If this trend continues, the speculative premium will build gradually, setting the stage for a longer-term rally. In essence, the foundation for the next major move appears to be forming, and according to Adler, the most interesting part of this cycle may have just begun.

Technical Details: Price Holds Near $97K

Bitcoin is trading at $96,800 after briefly pushing above the $97,000 level earlier in the session. While bulls have maintained control throughout the past week, they’re now showing signs of exhaustion as demand appears to be stalling around current prices. Still, the price remains elevated, and momentum is building across the broader market as traders anticipate a potential breakout.

To sustain the rally, BTC must hold above the $95,000 level, now acting as a key short-term support. A stable base here could provide the necessary fuel for a continued push toward the $100,000 psychological milestone, which would confirm a fresh bullish leg in this cycle.

However, if Bitcoin fails to hold $95K, short-term sentiment could shift quickly. A break below this level may open the door to a deeper retrace, with the next major support lying in the $88K–$90K zone. Given the high level of macroeconomic uncertainty and mixed signals across global markets, traders are likely to remain cautious heading into the weekend.

For now, the focus remains on whether bulls can build enough momentum to breach $97K again and make a convincing move toward uncharted territory.