Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index Nears Positive Zone, Signaling Renewed Market Confidence?

As of April 18, 2025, Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index shows signs of approaching positive territory, potentially indicating a shift in investor sentiment. This key metric, which tracks the price difference between Coinbase Pro and other major exchanges, often serves as a barometer for institutional demand. The recent upward trend suggests growing optimism among sophisticated investors, possibly foreshadowing improved market conditions. Market analysts are closely monitoring this development, as sustained positive premiums could signal the beginning of a new accumulation phase. The movement aligns with broader recovery patterns observed across crypto derivatives markets, where open interest and funding rates have shown stabilization.

BTC Coinbase Premium Shows Signs Of Recovery

Bitcoin’s market sentiment appears to be gearing up for a notable shift due to data from the Coinbase Premium Index. In a recent post on the X (formerly Twitter), Daan Crypto Trades, a crypto analyst and trader, reports that the key metric has shown signs of recovery.

Specifically, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index is an indicator that tracks the price difference of BTC on the Coinbase exchange and other major crypto exchanges in the sector. Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that the index is gradually attempting to move into positive territory after being extremely negative for most of April.

This slight shift back toward positive territory points to a possible recovery in spot demand in the United States, which is typically observed as a bullish indication for the market as a whole. Although the premium is slowly turning positive, it is an indication of a resurgence of institutional interest and capital inflows from US retail traders.

According to the expert, this development comes after net Bitcoin Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) outflows and BTC accumulation by Michael Saylor‘s MicroStrategy firm. On Monday, the company purchased an additional 3,459 BTC, valued at $285.8 million at a cost price of $82,618.

As of April 13, 2025, the company owned 531,644 BTC, which were purchased for $35.92 billion at a price of $67,556 each. Considering the recent purchase at $82,618, MicroStrategy has now achieved a BTC yield of 11.4% Year-to-date (YTD) in 2025.

Even though the BTC Coinbase Premium Index tends to mostly be a lagging indicator, it might reveal underlying strength or weakness when the market is moving sideways. In the meantime, Daan Crypto Trades noted that the crucial metric is essentially flat currently, urging investors to closely monitor the trend.

Retail Bitcoin Holders Sell-Offs Surpass Large Investors

Amid Bitcoin’s ongoing volatility, there has been heightened selling pressure on crypto exchanges over the past 15 days. During this period, BTC retail and mid-sized investors were seen offloading their holdings more than whales or old investors.

Data from CryptoQuant Exchange Inflow Age/Value Bands shows that short-term holders have been the main sellers, transferring an average of 930 BTC to exchanges. Meanwhile, Long-Term Holders only saw daily movements of roughly 529 BTC, indicating that long-term conviction is still strong despite panic or profit-taking from short-term holders.

This cohort-driven breakdown clarifies that the present correction is not a big exodus by smart money, since Bitcoin is trading sideways and volatility is compressing. Rather, it is most likely the result of anxious mid-tier and short-term holders.