A prominent analyst warns Bitcoin is flashing critical bearish signals despite its recent push above $70,000, citing a historically accurate pattern that suggests a significant correction may be imminent. Technical analysis reveals BTC has entered a dangerous 'sell zone' that has preceded major downturns in every previous market cycle, potentially signaling a sharp 10%+ pullback is on the horizon.
Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the weekly candlestick timeframe chart shows an interesting observation. The analysis was done by a crypto analyst called Tony Research, who looked at one of the most consistently observed structures in Bitcoin’s history: the four-year cycle.
The analysis looked at the following durations from bottom to bottom across three distinct cycles. Cycle 1 (2015 to 2018) ran for 1,431 days; Cycle 2 (2019 to 2022) covered 1,421 days; and the current Cycle 3 (2023 to 2026) is tracking at approximately 1,390 days.
The Gaussian Channel indicator on the weekly timeframe chart shows that each of these cycles has followed the same general structure. The structure involves a recovery from a bear market bottom, a bull run that carries the BTC price to new all-time highs, and then a final distribution phase before a major drawdown.
Bitcoin formed bull market tops in November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021, with each cycle spanning approximately four years from peak to peak. Consistent with this structure, the most recent cycle appears to have peaked on October 6, 2025, at just above $126,000.
Price action trading between $60,000 and $76,000 is, in Tony’s view, not for nothing but a reflection of indecision at a critical point in the cycle. The conclusion is that this range is the final stage before a deeper correction.
History shows that the moment Bitcoin crossed back beneath the upper band of the Gaussian Channel signified the entry into what is the terminal distribution phase. The same signal has now appeared on the current chart, and this reinforces the idea that BTC is trading in a zone where the final drop might happen any time.
In another analysis, Tony outlined an approach to Bitcoin that has, by his assessment, outperformed the vast majority of retail traders over a four-year period. The approach is based on Bitcoin’s relationship with its 200-day moving average.
Whenever the price falls below the MA200, the instruction is to buy and accumulate. When Bitcoin breaks back above the MA200 and has been trading above it for approximately 1,000 days, the instruction is to sell.
At present, BTC has already spent many months above this moving average. Therefore, the cryptocurrency might not be in a phase where aggressive accumulation makes sense.
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