XRP Charts Major Technical Shift: $22 Target in Play if Breakout Retest Holds Strong

A major technical warning has emerged for XRP investors as the asset faces a critical retest of its breakout level, with analysts signaling a potential 10% correction if support fails. The cryptocurrency is forming a large-scale macro 'W' pattern on its monthly chart, a structure that analyst Egrag Crypto suggests carries a 25-35% probability of propelling XRP to a staggering $22 target—but only if immediate key technical levels hold firm against selling pressure.

Macro W Formation Shows Breakout And Retest In Progress

Egrag’s chart analysis shows a large W-shaped structure developing across higher timeframes on the XRP chart. The W formation spans years of XRP price action on the monthly timeframe, and the first leg is already completed. The second leg has now entered into a breakout followed by a pullback into the former resistance zone.

That pullback is currently playing out around the $1.60 region, which is shown in the chart below as a bullish hammer candle. The breakout above resistance has already occurred, and price action is now attempting to confirm that level as support. The presence of this bullish hammer candle shows that buyers are stepping in during the retest.

As long as XRP holds within the $1.60 to $1.80 range, then the bullish structure is still in place. A loss of this area would begin to compromise the pattern’s structural integrity. Invalidation, by contrast, will happen if the XRP price undergoes a breakdown through $1.40 to $1.20 or a continued failure to break above $2.00.

XRP Price Chart. Source: @egragcrypto On X

Price Targets To Watch Out For

Although the analysis projects a much higher target for XRP, the immediate focus is on reclaiming $2.00. Egrag identifies this level as the key trigger that would shift the structure from a simple retest into a confirmed continuation.

A move above $2.00, followed by sustained acceptance, would indicate that XRP has regained strength after the pullback. From there, the next level to watch sits around $3.30, which aligns with the upper boundary of the current range shown on the chart. 

Only after a full expansion through these levels would the $22 target begin to come into view. The projected $22 target is based on a measured move from the macro W structure, combined with the neck resistance, historical expansion multiples, and macro cycle behavior. However, Egrag does not treat this outcome as guaranteed.

Egrag was explicit about the chances of XRP’s next move from the current price. A full expansion to $22 carries a 25% to 35% likelihood, while a partial move into the $3 to $8 range is assigned a 50% to 60% probability. An outright failure and break below $1.20 is given just a 10% to 15% probability. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.40.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView