Analyst Issues Stark Warning: How Low Could Bitcoin Price Actually Go?

A leading crypto analyst has issued a severe warning, highlighting a potential worst-case scenario for Bitcoin's price trajectory. Citing historical cyclical patterns, the expert suggests the current market could be on the cusp of a significant deviation from past bull runs, with a sharp correction potentially looming. The analysis focuses on the critical percentages of price appreciation and subsequent crashes, questioning whether this cycle will follow the established precedent or chart a new, more volatile course.

Bitcoin Will See Another Major Crash, But How Low?

Analyst Crypto Patel highlighted the history of Bitcoin price performance over the last few cycles and how it could translate to the current cycle. Over the years, the Bitcoin bear market has often seen the digital asset crash by an average of 80%, suggesting that it is possible that this happens this time around.

Following this same trend, the analyst explains that a 77% crash this cycle would put the BTC price somewhere around $32,000. However, Crypto Patel does not believe that this is possible and that the Bitcoin price will not go this low.

Now, usually, after the Wave 3, the price sees a major crash, which often sends it toward a new bottom. This means that there is still another crash left for Bitcoin before a bottom is reached. The question is now how low the price could go.

Instead of crashing 77% to $32,000, the crypto analyst believes that the Bitcoin price will not fall below $40,000 this cycle. This will essentially mean that it does not get below 70%. Instead, the $40,000-$50,000 level is expected to be the max pain point for investors.

Still Following The 4-Year Cycle

Despite the deviation that occurred back in 2024, when the Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high before the halving, some parts of the 4-year cycle seem to be following the trend. As @ArdiNSC points out on X, the top has been consistently hit in a new 4-year cycle.

It has been the same in 2013, then 2017, before 2021, and then eventually 2017, almost 4 years apart each time. Given this, it is likely that at least some parts of the 4-year cycle are still in play. In such a case, then it could mean that the BTC price decline will continue, since historically, it has bottomed the year before the halving.

This means that BTC is just coming into the bear market, lending credence to Crypto Patel’s prediction that another major crash is coming. If this same 4-year cycle holds, then it is likely that the Bitcoin price will reach new all-time highs somewhere between 2028 and 2029.