Bitcoin MACD Plunges to Bearish Territory Unseen Since 2022 — Is This the Start of Another Crypto Winter?
A key momentum indicator for Bitcoin just flashed its most bearish signal in years—sparking fresh fears of a prolonged market freeze.
### The MACD's Ominous Dive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) gauge, a staple for tracking trend shifts, has sliced through critical support. This technical breakdown echoes patterns last witnessed during the 2022 market capitulation, where prices entered a deep freeze for months.
### Reading Between the Lines
While the indicator paints a grim short-term picture, seasoned traders know these signals aren't infallible. They often precede sharp reversals just as frequently as extended downtrends—market psychology loves to punish the consensus view. Remember, the same charts that screamed 'sell' in late 2022 also failed to capture the explosive rally that followed.
### The Bigger Picture Beyond the Chart
Technical analysis offers one lens, but it ignores the fundamental engine: adoption. Institutional inflows, regulatory clarity, and network growth continue their march forward, largely indifferent to a single oscillating line on a screen. The underlying asset hasn't changed; only the sentiment around it has.
### A Cynical Take from Finance
As one veteran fund manager quipped, 'Technical indicators are great for telling you what just happened with scientific precision—and what happens next with the accuracy of a horoscope.' The market's memory is notoriously short, and today's panic often fuels tomorrow's opportunity.
So, is another crypto winter incoming? The chart says maybe. History says maybe not. The only certainty is volatility—and the relentless hunt for the next narrative shift.
Is BTC About To Witness A Repeat Of 2022?
In a March 8 post on the X platform, Chartered Market Technician Tony Severino shared an interesting insight into the current situation of the Bitcoin market. The crypto pundit hypothesized that the world’s largest cryptocurrency might have to endure a bearish period associated with the Terra (LUNA) ecosystem crash in 2022.
The rationale behind this evaluation is the steady decline in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on BTC’s two-week price chart. MACD is a prominent momentum indicator used in technical analysis to identify trend direction, momentum changes, and potential entry and exit positions.
Typically, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has two lines: the MACD line (green) and the signal line (red), and a histogram, which reflects the distance between the two aforementioned lines. The histogram, which is the primary momentum indicator, is currently signaling a strong bearish momentum.
This observation is because the histogram bars are expanding, signaling rising momentum in the current direction (which is bearish because the bars are below the neutral or zero line). According to Severino, the MACD indicator is even expanding to levels not seen since 2022, when the Terra (LUNA) ecosystem collapse sent bearish shockwaves through the entire crypto market.
2W Bitcoin LMACD momentum is around the same point before the Luna collapse in 2022
It’s possible something nasty is coming
How are you managing your risk? And do you even know how? pic.twitter.com/SFzsYJxiZc
— Tony Severino, CMT (@TonySeverinoCMT) March 8, 2026
The crypto market analyst said, “it is possible that something nasty is coming,” suggesting that another crypto winter might be imminent. After Terra’s collapse in May, the premier cryptocurrency would have fallen from above $50,000 to around $30,000 — about a 40% decline — by July 2022.
However, it is important to note that the market might have already priced in what is currently being seen in the MACD indicator, which is often considered a lagging indicator. Moreover, Bitcoin has already lost nearly 30% of its value so far in 2026.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
At the time of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $67,520, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours.
