CryptoQuant Analysis: Bitcoin Rally More Likely a Relief Bounce Than a New Bull Phase

Bitcoin's recent surge has traders buzzing—but one analytics firm is pumping the brakes. CryptoQuant data suggests this move looks more like a temporary relief bounce than the start of a fresh bull market.

Reading the On-Chain Tea Leaves

Exchange reserves aren't draining like they do during sustained bullish momentum. Large holders—the so-called whales—aren't accumulating aggressively at these levels. And that key metric, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, is flashing caution, hinting the price might be running ahead of actual network utility.

The Sentiment Gauge Says 'Not Yet'

Social media hype is up, but the smart money isn't following suit. Funding rates across major derivatives platforms remain relatively tame, lacking the overheated frenzy that typically accompanies a true paradigm shift. It's the classic setup: retail gets excited while institutions stay sidelined—a tale as old as, well, the last crypto cycle.

Macro Winds Still Blowing Cold

Don't forget the backdrop. Global liquidity conditions haven't magically reversed. Central banks are still more focused on fighting the last war (inflation) than fueling the next asset boom. Until the macro spigots reopen, sustained risk-on rallies face a major headwind.

So, is this the big one? The data says probably not. It looks like a classic bear market rally—sharp, emotional, and ultimately a trap for the over-eager. As any seasoned trader will tell you, sometimes the most profitable move is to watch a pump and not FOMO in. After all, in crypto, patience isn't just a virtue—it's a strategy that keeps you from becoming exit liquidity for the next guy.

Bitcoin Bull Score Index Has A Value Of Just 10 Right Now

In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has discussed the latest trend in the Bull Score Index for Bitcoin. This metric basically contains information about the phase of the cycle that BTC is currently inside.

The indicator makes use of some of the most popular on-chain metrics to calculate its value. The list of the indicators covered by the Bull Score Index include the likes of MVRV Z-Score, CryptoQuant P&L Index, and Stablecoin Liquidity. In total, the metric accounts for the data of ten indicators, with its value representing the number of these that are giving a bullish signal for the BTC network right now. For example, the Bull Score Index having a value of 40 implies four of the metrics are bullish.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows how the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has fluctuated over the last year and a half:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Bull Score Index saw a spike above the 60 level back in October 2025 as the BTC price rallied to a new all-time high (ATH). This suggests that the majority of the indicators were giving a green signal.

The market unwind that followed the price surge, however, caused the Bull Score Index to plummet back into the zone below 40, corresponding to bearish conditions in the sector. By late November, the bearish signal had become so strong that the index had dropped to a value of zero.

Since then, there hasn’t been any notable improvement in the indicator, with its value consistently remaining at or below 20. This hasn’t changed after the latest rally above the $70,000 level, either, as the index is still sitting at the 10 mark, implying only one metric is currently giving a bullish signal.

“Bitcoin is still in a bear market despite the recent rally,” noted CryptoQuant. “The current move is likely just a relief rally, not the start of a new bull phase.” It now remains to be seen how much longer the Bull Score Index will remain inside the bearish zone.

In some other news, the Bitcoin network has seen its userbase reach a new height recently, as on-chain analytics firm Santiment has highlighted in an X post.

From the above chart, it’s visible that non-empty addresses on the Bitcoin network have jumped 3% over the last six months, taking their total count to a new ATH of 58.45 million.

BTC Price

Bitcoin climbed toward $74,000 on Wednesday, but the bullish momentum has cooled off since then as the asset has returned to $70,500.