Bitcoin Nearing Bottom Phase, Not Early Bear Market: Key Report Signals Turning Point
Bitcoin's brutal correction might be closer to its final chapter than its opening act. A fresh analysis suggests the flagship crypto is grinding through a bottoming phase—not just entering another prolonged bear cycle. That distinction could mean everything for patient investors.
Reading the Charts, Not the Headlines
Forget the panic. Technical indicators and on-chain data are painting a more nuanced picture. The report highlights specific metrics—like exchange outflows and long-term holder behavior—that historically flash green near market troughs. It's not about ignoring the pain; it's about recognizing its familiar shape.
The Psychology of the Bottom
True bottoms aren't born from optimism. They're forged in exhaustion, when the last weak hands finally capitulate. This phase is characterized by sideways churn and pervasive disbelief—a sentiment far removed from the fearful but active selling of an early bear market. Sound familiar?
A Cynical Nod to Tradition
Meanwhile, traditional finance pundits are busy revising their "crypto is dead" obituaries for the third time this decade—a reliable contrary indicator if there ever was one.
The takeaway? The darkest part of the night often comes just before dawn. For Bitcoin, the dawn might be closer than the doomsayers think.
Bitcoin Supply In Loss Trend Doesn’t Look Similar To An Early Bear Market
In its latest weekly report, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed how the current bear market structure is looking from the perspective of the Total Supply in Loss. This indicator measures the amount of Bitcoin that’s currently being held at some net unrealized loss on the blockchain.
Here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) value of the metric over the last several years:
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Total Supply in Loss approached a value of zero as the cryptocurrency’s price hit a new all-time high (ATH) in October. The market downturn that has followed since then, however, has put a large chunk of the supply into loss, causing a sharp surge in the indicator.
Today, the 7-day average value of the metric is sitting at 9.2 million BTC, which is the highest level since the end of the last bear market. Currently, there are just under 20 million tokens in circulation, so the latest value of the Total Supply in Loss corresponds to nearly half the asset’s supply. “This aligns with prior bear market environments where drawdowns approached the 50% threshold and broad investor cohorts were under pressure,” explained the analytics firm.
From the chart, it’s visible that not only is the current level of the metric similar to past bear markets, its structure in fact resembles that of their latter stages, rather than early phases.
Historically, the higher the Total Supply in Loss has gone, the more probable a market bottom has become. The reason behind the pattern is that as loss concentration increases on the Bitcoin network, selling pressure with the motive of profit-taking starts becoming exhausted. Both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets reached their bottoms alongside tops in the metric.
So far, the 7-day MA Total Supply in Loss hasn’t reached the same highs as during previous cyclical bottoms, but it has certainly come close following the most recent jump in the metric. “In structural terms, the market appears closer to a potential bottoming range than to the initial onset of contraction, even as volatility and fragility persist,” noted Glassnode.
BTC Price
Bitcoin recovered above $69,000 on Wednesday, but its price has seen a small pullback since then as it’s now trading around $67,300.
