Bitcoin New Holder Pain Extends: $98,000 Needed For Relief - The Breaking Point Looms

Fresh Bitcoin buyers are staring down the barrel of extended losses—and analysts say the pain won't stop until the king coin punches through the $98,000 ceiling.

The Reality Check

Forget the moon-shot predictions plastered across social media. The current on-chain data paints a brutal picture for anyone who bought near the last cycle's peak. Their collective break-even point now sits at a staggering $98,000, creating a massive psychological and technical wall for the asset.

Anatomy of a Resistance Zone

This isn't just a random number. It's the aggregate cost basis for a specific, stubborn cohort of investors. Every tick upward toward that figure will trigger sell orders from holders desperate to exit at breakeven—classic human behavior that Wall Street quants have exploited for decades. The crypto market, for all its decentralization, still dances to the tune of crowd psychology.

The Path Forward

Breaking this level requires a catalyst powerful enough to shift the narrative from 'exit liquidity' to 'price discovery.' Institutional inflows, a macro liquidity surge, or a black-swan regulatory green light could provide the thrust. Until then, the market grinds, testing the resolve of every new entrant who believed the 'number only go up' mantra without reading the fine print about volatility.

It's a harsh reminder: in crypto, as in traditional finance, the 'smart money' often makes its returns from the hope—and subsequent despair—of the latecomers. The road to $98,000 looks less like a victory lap and more like an obstacle course built on the unrealized losses of the recent faithful.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Are Still Holding Net Losses

In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for Bitcoin short-term holders. This indicator measures, as its name suggests, the net amount of profit or loss that BTC investors as a whole are carrying.

The metric finds the net profit/loss in USD terms, but as capital stored in the cryptocurrency is following an upward trajectory, the absolute value of profits and losses is also ballooning. To normalize across cycles, the indicator compares the net profit/loss against the asset’s market cap.

When the value of the NUPL is positive, it means the BTC investors as a whole are in a state of net unrealized profit relative to the market cap. On the other hand, the metric’s value being under the zero mark suggests the overall network is underwater. In the context of the current topic, the NUPL of a specific part of the blockchain is of interest: short-term holders (STHs). This cohort includes the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.

Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH NUPL over the last several years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH NUPL has been negative recently, indicating that the recent buyers of the asset have been holding a net unrealized loss.

The group first went underwater back in November when the cryptocurrency’s price witnessed its crash. BTC steadied course in December and has seen some recovery in January, but even at the peak of the surge, the STHs couldn’t return to profits.

“A recovery above ~$98K appears to be the minimum threshold required to return this cohort to a net profitable state,” explained the analytics firm. It now remains to be seen whether the unrealized loss streak of the STHs will extend further in the NEAR future or if BTC will reclaim its cost basis.

The NUPL provides information about the profits and losses that Bitcoin investors have yet to capture. Another metric called the Net Realized Profit/Loss covers the profits and losses that BTC holders are “harvesting” through their transactions.

As CryptoQuant head of research, Julio Moreno, has pointed out in an X post, the 30-day value of the Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss has been negative recently, a sign that loss-taking has outweighed profit-taking. This is the first time since October 2023 that loss realization has dominated this timeframe, as the chart below shows.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $90,900, down more than 2% over the past week.