Bitcoin Enters Risk-Off Regime: Sentiment and On-Chain Data Align - What’s Next for the King Crypto?
Bitcoin shifts gears as market sentiment and blockchain metrics flash warning signs. The digital gold narrative faces its first real stress test since the last cycle peak.
The Sentiment Shift
Fear's creeping back. The euphoria that fueled the last leg up has evaporated, replaced by a cautious, wait-and-see attitude. Social chatter turns from 'number go up' to 'where's the bottom?'—a classic behavioral pivot that often precedes price discovery.
On-Chain Tells the Tale
It's not just vibes. The blockchain itself is whispering. Key on-chain indicators—the ones smart money watches—are aligning with the gloomy mood. Think of it as the crypto's vital signs showing increased volatility. When the ledger speaks, you listen.
Navigating the Risk-Off Waters
So what now? This isn't a crash signal; it's a regime change. Strategies that worked in the raging bull market suddenly feel risky. The market's moving from greed-driven speculation to something more measured, more nervous. It's the financial equivalent of everyone suddenly checking the weather radar.
Bitcoin's proving, once again, that it trades on human emotion as much as halving cycles. The coming weeks will separate the diamond hands from the tourists. Just remember, in traditional finance, 'risk-off' usually means flocking to bonds or gold. In crypto, it sometimes means sitting on your hands and watching the charts—arguably a more honest form of portfolio management.
Bitcoin Trades Below Key Cost Bases as Recovery Signals Remain Elusive
Bitcoin continues to trade under pressure, with price hovering near the $87,400 level, a zone that analysts view as structurally weak in the short term. According to insights shared by Axel Adler, bitcoin is currently trading below all major short-term holder realized price benchmarks, highlighting the fragility of recent demand. The closest overhead barrier is the short-term holder, 1-week to 1-month realized price around $90,300, a level now acting as immediate resistance rather than support.
Above that, resistance intensifies sharply. A dense supply cluster emerges between $100,400 and $101,500, where the 1-month to 3-month short-term holder realized price converges with the aggregate short-term holder realized price. This zone also aligns closely with the 365-day simple moving average NEAR $101,800, reinforcing its importance as a longer-term inflection area. Additional moving average resistance is positioned even higher, with the 111-day and 200-day SMAs near $104,300 and $107,900, respectively.
Trading below short-term holder cost bases implies that the most recent buyers are sitting on unrealized losses. As a result, relief rallies toward breakeven levels risk triggering renewed selling. For market conditions to improve meaningfully, Bitcoin WOULD need to reclaim and hold above the $90,000 area. Until then, the absence of strong spot demand leaves the market exposed to further downside, despite long-term support anchored near the aggregate realized price at $56,300.
Price Pulls Back to Key Weekly Support: Trend Structure Is Tested
Bitcoin is consolidating near the $87,700 level on the weekly chart, following a sharp rejection from the $110,000–$115,000 region earlier this cycle. The chart shows a clear loss of momentum after the parabolic advance that defined most of 2024 and early 2025, with price now correcting toward its rising long-term averages. Notably, Bitcoin is trading just above the weekly 111-day simple moving average, which has historically acted as an important trend gauge during bull market corrections.
The pullback has so far remained orderly. Despite several weeks of downside pressure, the price has not broken decisively below the ascending structure that began in late 2023. However, the loss of the faster weekly moving average, combined with lower highs since the peak, suggests that the market is transitioning into a consolidation or corrective phase rather than an immediate trend continuation.
Volume dynamics reinforce this view. Selling pressure has increased during down weeks, while recovery attempts have lacked strong follow-through, pointing to cautious positioning among participants. Meanwhile, the 200-day weekly moving average remains far below current levels, underscoring that the broader trend is still intact, albeit stretched.
From a structural perspective, holding the $85,000–$88,000 area is critical. A sustained breakdown below this zone would expose deeper downside risk, while stabilization here could allow Bitcoin to build a base before attempting another directional move.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
