Load The Bags! Bitcoin MVRV Hits Key Accumulation Threshold – Time to Buy?

Bitcoin's MVRV ratio just flashed a classic buy signal—the kind that historically separates the timid from the wealthy.

The Signal in the Noise

Forget the daily price chop. The Market Value to Realized Value metric cut through the noise, dropping to a level where long-term holders start stacking sats, not selling them. It's a cold, hard number that bypasses hype and points directly at value.

Why This Threshold Matters

This isn't a guess. When MVRV hits this zone, it signals the asset is trading near or below its average on-chain cost basis. It’s the market whispering that the downside is limited and the smart money is loading up—while traditional finance is still busy writing reports on why it's a risky asset.

The Accumulation Game

The trigger is simple: buy when others are fearful. The data screams that we're in that window. This metric has preceded every major bull run, acting as a launchpad for those with the stomach to act.

So, the charts have spoken. The question is whether you're listening or waiting for a CNBC anchor to give you permission. History doesn't reward the latter.

Accumulation Zones – Stressful In Real Time, Rewarding Long-Term: Analyst 

Q4 2025 has largely been an enduring period for most Bitcoin investors. After attaining a new-time high of $126,100 in early October, the leading cryptocurrency has struggled with further price growth, but rather succumbed to strong selling pressure to decline by 30.1%. However, Bitcoin’s latest price drops pushed the market into new dynamics favorable for investors with high risk tolerance, based on historical data from the MVRV percentile metric.

For context, the bitcoin MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) compares Bitcoin’s current market capitalization to its realized capitalization (the value of coins at their last on-chain movement), showing whether BTC is over- or undervalued. Raw MVRV can be hard to compare across cycles. Therefore, the MVRV Percentile ranks current MVRV against its historical distribution (0–100), making it easier to judge extremes across different cycles, where high percentiles indicate overheated markets, low percentiles suggest capitulation.

Using this metric, seasoned market analyst RugaResearch explains that the present MVRV percentile falls within 0-10%, a range that is usually associated with heavy investor capitulation and market losses as fear gripped the market. However, the crypto expert also observed similar market situations to have served as ideal entry points to an exponential price rally.

For example, Bitcoin MVRV dropped below 10% when prices crashed to around $200-$300 in 2015, after the Mt.Gox black swan event, spreading waves of pessimism among investors, some of whom might have expected a total regulatory ban. However, the premier cryptocurrency surges in the following months with heavy traction, reaching a peak price of $20,000 in 2017 to represent a 10x gain. 

RugaResearch also references a more recent example after BTC slumped to $15,000 following the FTX collapse in 2022, which was heralded by other events, including the collapse of the Terra Luna Ecosystem, and businesses such as Celsius and Three Arrows Capital. Despite the heavy market fear during this period, Bitcoin WOULD record another resurgence to double its price within the following year.

Bitcoin Set To Boom?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $88,200 after a price gain of 0.54% in the past day. However, its performance on the weekly and monthly charts reports losses of 2.52% and 3.52%, respectively, as many investors remain underwater, and others exit the market. Nevertheless, RugaResearch explains that recent retail capitulation represents an ideal “high-risk, high-reward” zone considering the MVRV Percentile that is less than 10. The analyst nudges investors to get aggressive with accumulation to benefit from the next explosive upside move.