Bitcoin 2025: Short-Term Gains vs. Long-Term HODL - Which Strategy Wins?

Bitcoin's 2025 numbers are in, and they're sparking a fierce debate: is the fast cash of short-term trading really more profitable than the patient hold?

The Case for the Quick Flip

Market volatility isn't just noise—it's a revenue stream for the agile. The 2025 data reveals windows where rapid entry and exit strategies captured significant upside, turning market dips into opportunities before the long-term crowd even finished their coffee. This approach demands a stomach for risk and a finger constantly on the pulse, but for some, the adrenaline is just a bonus.

The Unshakeable Power of HODLing

Then there's the silent majority, the digital asset stalwarts who treat their Bitcoin like a rare vintage—acquired and stored, not traded. Their strategy bypasses the daily noise, the transaction fees, and the tax events that chip away at short-term gains. It's a bet on the foundational thesis: that Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, driven by adoption and scarcity, outweighs the fleeting wins of timing the market. After all, most traditional fund managers still can't beat a simple index—why would crypto be any different?

The Verdict Is In Your Wallet

So, which path prints more? The 2025 figures show both roads can lead to profit, but they cater to entirely different psychologies. One is a tactical game of precision; the other is a philosophical stance on the future of money. Your portfolio's best strategy depends less on the charts and more on your mirror—are you a trader or a believer? Choose wisely, because in finance, the only free lunch is the one you bring yourself.

Short-Term Holders Spent Most Of 2025 In Profit

According to data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, bitcoin short-term holders were in a profitable position for roughly two-thirds of 2025. On-chain profit and loss data shows that this cohort was in profit for about 66% of trading days, which translates to about 230 trading days. 

During the first half of 2025, Bitcoin’s price frequently traded above the average realized price of short-term holders, allowing recent buyers to lock in gains even as volatility remained elevated. This pattern became especially visible during mid-year rallies, when Bitcoin pushed above the $100,000 region and short-term profit margins expanded sharply. 

Each time the price reclaimed levels above the short-term realized price, realized gains dominated the distribution. Back in January, Bitcoin maintained a position above the short-term cost basis for nearly two consecutive months, creating the first extended window of sustained profitability for this cohort in 2025. 

A similar, and even more pronounced, phase unfolded between May and October, when short-term holders sat on substantial unrealized gains. During this period, the profit-and-loss margin climbed as high as 20 percent in July, coinciding with Bitcoin’s first breakout above $115,000. During this period, Spot Bitcoin ETFs were witnessing huge institutional inflows that cancelled out any profit-taking from short-term holders.

BTC: STH Realized Profit and Loss. Source: CryptoQuant

Current Picture Shows Short-Term Holders Underwater

That favorable backdrop has changed into losses in recent weeks. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around the low-$90,000 range, while the short-term holder realized price is just above $100,000. This places the current profit/loss margin at a loss of about 10%. 

Interestingly, this margin recently fell to as low as negative 20% when the Bitcoin price broke below $85,000 in November, which is the deepest loss regime for short-term holders in 2025.

Nonetheless, the 2025 data shows that short-term holding was profitable for most of the year, but the outlook is not favorable right now. Structurally, these DEEP loss pockets usually show up closer to the late stages of a correction than the early ones.

Right now, the most important thing for short-term holders is for Bitcoin to reclaim the short-term realized price and push back above $100,000. Until then, short-term holders will stay under pressure, even with the yearly statistics leaning in their favor.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView