Bitcoin Stalls in Tight Range as Analysts Clash: Is the Legendary Four-Year Cycle Finally Dead?

Bitcoin's price action has flatlined. The king of crypto is stuck in a frustratingly narrow band, leaving traders staring at charts and analysts locked in a fierce debate: has the market's most famous rhythm—the four-year cycle—run its course?

The Pattern That Defined an Era

For over a decade, Bitcoin's boom-and-bust cadence felt almost biblical. Halving events kicked off bull runs that peaked roughly four years apart, creating a playbook everyone thought they knew. Now, that script looks torn up. The predictable surges and corrections that made fortunes (and broke them) have been replaced by sideways chop and institutional-sized question marks.

A Market Growing Up—Or Breaking Down?

Some argue this isn't a breakdown but a maturation. With Wall Street giants now holding the keys and ETFs sucking up supply, the old retail-driven frenzy might just be obsolete. The market's plumbing has changed; maybe the cycles have, too. Others see a dangerous precedent—a broken narrative that could unravel the speculative faith propping up the entire digital asset class. After all, what's a crypto thesis without a chart pattern to worship?

What Comes Next?

If the four-year cycle is truly over, throw out the old textbooks. Analysts are scrambling for new frameworks, eyeing macro rates, global liquidity, and even geopolitical shocks as the new primary drivers. It's a messy, uncertain shift—the kind that separates the true believers from the tourists just here for the number-go-up tech. One cynical take? The finance world loves a predictable pattern right up until it can package and sell volatility as 'innovation.'

Bitcoin isn't crashing; it's waiting. The next move won't be dictated by a countdown clock, but by a complex tug-of-war between institutional adoption and raw, unfiltered market psychology. The old cycle might be dead. The real question is what beast rises from its ashes.

Analysts Question Whether the Cycle Has Ended

A growing number of major firms now argue that Bitcoin may be moving beyond its historic halving-driven rhythm. Investment firm Bernstein said in a recent note that the asset is in an “elongated bull cycle,” pointing to minimal ETF outflows despite a nearly 30% correction.

The firm has raised its 2026 price target to $150,000, projecting a potential cycle peak of $200,000 in 2027 and maintaining a $1 million long-term estimate for 2033.

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood echoed this view, saying that institutional adoption is reducing the likelihood of the steep 75–90% drawdowns seen in previous cycles. Grayscale has also suggested bitcoin could break the four-year pattern, forecasting renewed strength in 2026.

Bitcoin is currently trading NEAR $90,000–$93,000 depending on the venue, with recent intraday swings highlighting a lack of strong directional conviction.

Fed Signals Keep Markets Cautious

The Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate cut initially lifted risk sentiment, but a shift toward cautious, data-dependent language quickly reversed momentum.

Bitcoin and ethereum slipped after the announcement, with BTC falling below $90,000 at one point as traders reassessed the macro backdrop. Liquidity remains thin, contributing to choppy movements across major crypto assets.

Analysts note that Bitcoin’s inability to sustain gains, despite the weaker dollar and softer Fed stance, reflects persistent uncertainty. Several commentators say BTC must hold above $90,000 to avoid strengthening bearish pressure, while a break above $94,500 could reopen a path toward $100,000 if inflows improve.

Derivatives and On-Chain Data Flag Rising Bearish Sentiment

Options and on-chain indicators are also signaling caution. Traders have increased bearish option positions, with the put/call ratio turning positive ahead of a significant expiry window. More than $500 million in crypto liquidations occurred within 24 hours, reflecting heightened volatility.

On-chain data shows declining bullish momentum. The Bitcoin Bull Score Index has fallen back to zero, and realized losses suggest further downside could be possible. Analysts warn that despite past buy-the-dip patterns, current readings do not yet reflect the levels typically associated with market bottoms.

Related Reading: Cardano Founder Reacts As NIGHT Token Crashes From $150 To $0.02

As Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight range, the broader debate remains unresolved. Whether the four-year cycle is fading, or simply paused, may depend on how markets digest macro uncertainty, institutional flows, and the next wave of economic data.

Cover image from ChatGPT, BTUSD chart from Tradingview