Bitcoin Hits Pivotal Turning Point – Here Are The Main Drivers Fueling The Surge
Bitcoin isn't just bouncing back—it's signaling a structural shift. Forget the sideways chop; the market's flashing green for a reason.
The Institutional Floodgates Are Open
Wall Street's finally playing for keeps. Spot ETF flows have turned from a trickle into a torrent, sucking supply off the market faster than miners can produce it. This isn't speculative froth; it's cold, hard capital reallocating on a massive scale. Traditional finance, always late to the party, is now trying to buy the entire bar.
Macro Winds Are Shifting
Rate hike fears are fading into the rearview. As central banks pivot toward easing, the 'higher for longer' narrative crumbles. That old enemy, fiat debasement, is back on the menu—and hard assets are back in vogue. Bitcoin's hard cap starts to look pretty attractive when the printing presses warm up again. It's the ultimate hedge against monetary policy incompetence.
The Halving Effect Is Baked In (And Then Some)
The supply shock from the last halving is now hitting the mainstream. Newly minted coins are scarce, but demand isn't. This fundamental mismatch creates a classic economic squeeze: limited supply meets exploding demand. The math is brutally simple, even for those finance bros who still think 'blockchain' is a spreadsheet upgrade.
Network Activity Doesn't Lie
Under the hood, the chain is humming. Active addresses are up, settlement volume is soaring, and the network is processing value like never before. This isn't just price speculation; it's utility in action. The digital gold narrative is converging with a global payment rail—and the market's pricing in both.
The convergence is here. Institutional adoption, friendly macro tides, a cemented supply crunch, and roaring network health. This isn't another bubble. It's the new floor.
A Key Market Shift Unfolding For Bitcoin
Bitcoin has experienced a rebound as the crypto landscape turns bullish again, sending its price back above the $90,000 mark. Following the bounce on Wednesday, the BTC market appears to have reached a critical junction as it hints at an impending shift in the current trend.
Delving into the market performance, Darkfost, an author at CryptoQuant and market expert, has outlined the key driver behind the unfolding shift. In the research shared on the X platform, the expert revealed that the market today is heavily driven by derivatives. In addition to the derivatives-driven market, 2025 has been the most speculative year bitcoin has ever seen in its existence.
Another key driver highlighted by the market expert is the actions of investors in the United States and the renewed demand at the institutional level. Darkfost’s research hinges on a critical Bitcoin metric, one that shows the average evolution of the Coinbase Premium Gap in the monthly timeframe and the Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) netflows.
Specifically, this metric is the Bitcoin ETF – Netflow USD Vs. Coinbase Premium. It is worth noting that the Coinbase Premium Gap calculates the pricing difference between Coinbase Pro and Binance. This helps illustrate the behavior of different groups of investors. While Coinbase Pro is typically used by institutions and whales, Binance, which has the largest volume, is available to everyone.
The Coinbase Premium Gap decreased from +$109 to -$40 since October 16, when Bitcoin was valued at almost $113,000. Such a drop suggests that institutional investors sharply decreased their positions.
BTC ETFs Netflows Impact On The Market
Interestingly, the trend was also observed in ETF netflows, which also flipped negative. During the period, BTC fell from $113,000 to $80,000, reflecting how much the US and institutional demand influence the market.
As seen in the past, large negative swings have frequently indicated market bottoms, provided that the trend thereafter begins to turn. A trend of this kind is what is playing out in the market today.
However, current data reveals that the Coinbase Premium Gap has bounced back to -$13 while the average ETF netflow is valued at around -$100 million. This comeback in both sectors indicates that in the NEAR term, the situation seems to be improving, and BTC’s price is reacting appropriately to the crucial shift.
As a result, Darkfost predicts that a new all-time high for BTC may happen quickly if this pattern continues in the long run. The ongoing shift may be subtle, but it is noticeable as the market appears to be preparing for a phase that might largely change the course of Bitcoin.
