Ethereum Supply on Binance Plummets to 6-Month Low – Are Whales Accumulating for the Next Bull Run?
Binance's ETH reserves just hit their lowest level since May 2025 – and crypto veterans are taking notice. This isn't your average exchange outflow.
The Big Question: Is this institutional accumulation before ETH's next leg up? Exchange supply crunches often precede major price movements. Remember what happened last January when reserves dropped 40% before ETH's 300% rally?
Smart Money Moves: While retail traders chase meme coins, OTC desks report surging demand for large ETH blocks. 'We're seeing more $10M+ buys in a week than we saw all last quarter,' says a Genesis Trading desk manager (who asked us not to name which hedge funds are buying).
Meanwhile in DeFi: Liquid staking protocols now control 32% of all ETH – creating what analysts call a 'supply double whammy.' Less on exchanges, more locked in smart contracts. Perfect storm for volatility.
The Cynic's Take: Of course this happens right after Wall Street banks started offering crypto collateralized loans. Nothing like creating artificial scarcity to juice your lending business.
Ethereum Exchange Supply Decline Signals Market Accumulation Phase
In the CryptoQuant report, analyst Arab Chain highlights a notable divergence between Ethereum’s price action and exchange supply dynamics. The price of Ethereum (black line) climbed to consecutive highs NEAR $4,500–$5,000 in August and September 2025 before retracing to around $3,500 today. Interestingly, this decline coincided with a sharp drop in exchange-held ETH supply, suggesting that many traders withdrew their coins after securing profits — likely moving them into cold storage in anticipation of longer-term accumulation.
If this trend of declining Ethereum supply on Binance persists, market liquidity for ETH sales could tighten further. Such a contraction in sell-side supply often supports price stabilization, as reduced availability of tokens on exchanges lessens immediate selling pressure. In favorable macro or on-chain conditions, this setup could even help catalyze a renewed upward phase, especially if risk appetite among institutional and retail investors strengthens.
However, Arab Chain cautions that continued weak demand or reduced network activity might limit any near-term upside, keeping prices in a sideways range. Despite short-term uncertainty, the broader on-chain picture reflects a transitional accumulation phase, where long-term holders dominate flows.
This ongoing migration of ETH off exchanges — paired with increasing self-custody behavior — underlines growing investor conviction. If fundamental catalysts such as network upgrades, ETF approvals, or renewed DeFi activity align, Ethereum could be setting the stage for the next bullish leg of the cycle.
ETH Price Analysis: Reclaiming Key Support Levels
Ethereum is showing early signs of stabilization after reclaiming the $3,500 level, marking a modest but significant recovery from the recent capitulation phase that drove prices near $3,200. As seen in the daily chart, ETH has found temporary support at the 200-day moving average (red line), a historically reliable level that often defines the boundary between bullish and bearish cycles.
The price is now testing resistance near the $3,600–$3,700 zone, where both the 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) moving averages converge. A breakout above this area could confirm renewed bullish momentum, potentially setting the stage for a MOVE toward $3,900–$4,000, aligning with previous range highs.
However, the overall structure still reflects caution. The failure to hold above $4,000 earlier this month underscores the ongoing battle between buyers attempting to regain control and sellers taking profits amid market uncertainty. Trading volume remains subdued compared to the August–September rally, suggesting that conviction among market participants is still rebuilding.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
