Analyst Reveals Bitcoin Price Mirroring 2022 Pattern - But Completely Inverted
Bitcoin's wild ride takes a familiar path with a shocking twist.
The 2022 Playbook Flips Script
Market analysts spot uncanny parallels between current Bitcoin movements and the 2022 trajectory - except everything's running backward. Where previous cycles saw predictable dips and recoveries, the current pattern defies conventional wisdom with inverted signals that leave traditional chartists scratching their heads.
Technical indicators that previously signaled downturns now flash bullish, while historical support levels transform into resistance zones. The reverse correlation extends across multiple timeframes, creating what one analyst calls 'mirror market mechanics' - same players, different rules.
Institutional money flows contradict previous cycle behavior, with traditional finance giants now leading the charge instead of retail investors. The reversal extends to regulatory sentiment and adoption metrics, creating what could either be the smartest contrarian play or the most elaborate bear trap in crypto history.
Because nothing says 'stable store of value' like a market that can't decide which way is up - but Wall Street's suddenly betting big on the digital rollercoaster they spent years dismissing.
Bitcoin Price Traces 2022 Cycle Pattern In Reverse
Chifoi explained on X social media on November 2 that Bitcoin’s behaviour appears to be replaying the 2022 macroeconomic environment in reverse. Back in March 2022, he noted that when the FED first announced aggressive rate hikes, the bitcoin price was trending near $46,000. As the US central bank delivered its initial two hikes of 50 and 75 basis points by June that year, BTC collapsed to $17,000, marking the technical bottom of that cycle.
As the FED continued to hike from a total of 175 to 550 bps, the market had already absorbed the shock. Chifoi revealed that Bitcoin had entered its accumulation phase and began to reverse upward even as other market experts labeled the central bank’s actions “irresponsible” and belated.
Fast forward to the present, Chifoi believes that the cycle is now flipping. With the FED recently announcing the end of Quantitative Tightening by December, he predicts that the next three-month window could trigger a powerful bullish surge that could drive bitcoin to a top rather than a bottom.
He points to late December through January 20, 2026, as the key period to watch, suggesting that the crypto market could rally sharply before entering a cooling phase as liquidity fully returns.
Liquidity Spikes And Repo Signals Support Thesis
Supporting his analysis, Chifoi referenced a post made by another analyst known as ‘ChurchOfTheCycle,’ who shared a telling FRED chart showing a surge in Overnight Repurchase Agreements—Treasury securities temporarily purchased by the FED in open market operations.
The chart, which spans from 2000 to 2025, highlights a sudden and substantial spike in repo activity, suggesting potential liquidity injections into the financial system. The analyst noted that this spike alone does not guarantee a market crash, as historically such increases have typically provided a short-term boost for equities and crypto.
He further noted that the FED’s recent actions indicate stress in the financial system and an early stage of liquidity support, which could push speculative assets higher.
Based on this, the analyst predicts that the market could still enter a parabolic phase from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 before facing a major crash in 2026, roughly 6-12 months from the time of his post on November 2. As a precaution, he warns traders to monitor credit spreads, repo activity levels, and VIX correlation for early signs of tightening liquidity.
