Kalshi Overtakes Polymarket as NFL Season Fuels $500 Million Prediction Market Surge

Prediction markets just scored a touchdown—and Wall Street's still watching from the sidelines.

Kalshi surges past Polymarket as football fever ignites half-billion dollar betting frenzy. The NFL season isn't just moving chains—it's moving markets, proving once again that decentralized speculation often outpaces traditional finance's risk-averse paralysis.

While bankers debate spreadsheets, crypto natives are cashing in on real-world volatility. The $500 million surge demonstrates what happens when you combine American sports obsession with borderless betting infrastructure.

Prediction markets aren't just guessing games anymore—they're liquidity magnets attracting capital that traditional markets can't even comprehend. Another case of innovation leaving regulation in the dust.

NFL and Sports Betting Drive Prediction Market Adoption

According to Dune data, Kalshi’s market share jumped from just 5% at the start of 2025 to over 60% by September.

Weekly trading volumes soared to more than $500 million following the kickoff of the NFL season, rivaling the levels usually seen only during US elections.

Sports markets have proven to be Kalshi’s breakout category. A partnership with Robinhood in March introduced retail-friendly prediction markets around pro and college football, accelerating adoption.

Analysts note that Kalshi’s regulated status in the US has given it an edge in tapping mainstream sports bettors. Meanwhile, the Polymarket prediction platform is making headway in the American market following regulatory purview with the CFTC.

The NFL effect was decisive. By the first week of the season, Kalshi’s weekly volume matched levels typically seen in presidential election years, cementing sports as a powerful new growth driver for prediction markets.

“Kalshi has done $441 million of volume since the NFL kickoff. NFL week 1 is equal to a US election. Probably nothing,” Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour shared on X (Twitter) recently.

Coinbase vs Binance, but for Prediction Markets

Industry observers often frame the Kalshi-Polymarket rivalry as a mirror of the Coinbase vs Binance dynamic in crypto.

Polymarket = Binance
Kalshi = Coinbase

Both are trying to catch up to each other

– Polymarket is trying to go live in the US soon and offer a regulated, KYC-enabled layer

– Kalshi is trying to go on-chain and enable permissionless access to non-US customers

Both are trying… pic.twitter.com/QJdoVJtEgP

This dual approach highlights the race to become the universal liquidity LAYER for prediction markets through regulatory compliance and decentralization.

Kalshi’s recent partnerships with solana and Base suggest it is also preparing to bridge the crypto-native audience.

In September, the exchange launched an ecosystem hub to fund developers, creators, and new prediction products.

Introducing @KalshiEco: a hub to support builders, traders, and creators pushing the frontier of prediction markets.

We’re backing offchain and onchain innovation, with dedicated grants partnering with @Solana and @Base.
Come join us in building the future of trading the future. pic.twitter.com/maeSBMhSmP

With Paradigm backing its strategy, Kalshi is moving beyond politics and sports into entertainment, esports, and even financial market events.

Meanwhile, as Polymarket closes in on a US relaunch, CEO Shayne Coplan confirmed CFTC approval for reentry. The MOVE could put the platform directly competing with Kalshi in its home market.

Polymarket has been given the green light to go live in the USA by the @CFTC.

Credit to the Commission and Staff for their impressive work. This process has been accomplished in record timing.

Stay tuned https://t.co/NVziTixpqO

Before that happens, however, Kalshi is enjoying one of its strongest months in nearly a year. Dune data shows it reported $1.3 billion in trading volume in September, surpassing Polymarket’s $773 million mid-month tally.

Both companies are preparing new funding rounds, with Polymarket’s valuation at $9–10 billion and Kalshi’s NEAR $5 billion.

With sports betting, crypto integrations, and political wagers all converging, prediction markets appear poised to break into the financial mainstream.