Solana Price Rally Faces Critical Risk as All Holder Groups Turn Sellers
Solana's bull run hits a wall as every investor category flips bearish—retail, whales, and institutions all hitting the sell button at once.
Mass Exodus Underway
Small holders dumping? Not surprising. But when the big players—the so-called 'diamond hands'—start liquidating positions, that's when you know sentiment has truly flipped. No group is holding the line anymore.
Technical Breakdown Looms
Key support levels are getting tested as selling pressure mounts. The chain doesn't lie—on-chain data shows net outflows across all wallet tiers. Even the OGs are taking profits rather than betting on new highs.
Market Psychology Shifts
Greed morphs into fear faster than a leveraged long gets liquidated. When everyone decides to exit at the same time, even solid fundamentals can't stop the slide. Classic crypto herd behavior—buy high, panic sell low.
Institutional Cold Feet
Even the 'smart money' isn't immune to FUD. When funds and whales start offloading, it signals deeper concerns than just short-term profit-taking. Maybe they actually read those tokenomics papers for once.
Regulatory Shadow Boxing
Who needs fundamentals when the SEC can tweet a market crash? Another day, another reason for traders to pretend they care about compliance while chasing the next pump.
Bottom Line: When everybody sells, nobody buys. Basic economics—or as crypto calls it, 'a healthy correction.' Time to see if Solana's tech stack is as robust as its hype machine.
Holders Take Profits While Hidden Selling Pressure Builds
One way to track selling or holding behavior is through HODL Waves, which show how much of the supply is held by different age groups of wallets. If the percentage of coins held by a group falls, it usually means that the group is selling.
In Solana’s case, almost every key group has trimmed its holdings in the past month. The 1-3 month cohort dropped from 13.93% of supply on August 18 to 12.65% now. The 3-6 month group went from 12.92% to 12.03%. Even the long-term 1-2 year holders reduced from 22.51% to 21.20%.
The selling is not surprising after a 37% rally.
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But what is unusual is that NUPL, or Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, remains high. NUPL tracks how many wallets are sitting on paper profits. When it is high, it means many holders are still in profit and could take gains.
On September 12, when NUPL reached a three-month peak of 0.37, the Solana price corrected by over 3%.
This also takes us back to July 22, when NUPL hit 0.33. That peak lined up with a much steeper 22.9% drop in Solana’s price, from $205 to $158.
Right now, NUPL is NEAR 0.36 — close to those same danger levels.
Together, these signals suggest that while different holder groups have already sold, plenty of profit remains in the system. If selling pressure picks up again, weak hands may be quick to cash out.
Key Levels Decide Whether Solana Price Rally Extends Or Corrects
On the daily chart, Solana’s breakout from an ascending channel still points to a target near $284. But the immediate test lies at $249. A daily close above this resistance WOULD keep bulls in control.
The bigger risk comes from the two-day chart. Here, Solana is trading inside a rising wedge, a setup that often hints at a correction.
At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows momentum fading — prices have made higher highs, but RSI has made lower highs. This “bearish divergence” is often an early sign that a rally is running out of steam.
If the solana price breaks above $249 on a two-day close, the bearish setup could be invalidated.
But if it fails, the price may drift in a range and face pressure at $227. A deeper break below that could push Solana toward $202 and even lower.
