Recession Cancelled? Why Bitcoin and AI Are the Only Trades That Matter Right Now

Forget traditional safe havens—Bitcoin and artificial intelligence are rewriting the rules of recession-proof investing.

Digital Gold Meets Digital Brains

While Wall Street frets over economic indicators, crypto and AI markets surge ahead. Bitcoin's decentralized architecture bypasses traditional financial systems entirely, creating an alternative store of value that operates outside conventional market cycles.

AI algorithms now drive trading strategies that outperform human fund managers—and they don't take lunch breaks or bonus vacations.

The New Hedge Against Uncertainty

Institutional money floods into Bitcoin ETFs while AI startups secure funding rounds that make venture capitalists blush. These aren't speculative bets anymore—they're calculated positions in the only sectors showing consistent growth during economic turbulence.

Meanwhile, traditional portfolio managers still rebalance their 60/40 splits like it's 1999. Some things never change—including their fees.

The convergence of decentralized finance and machine learning creates an unstoppable force. Banks might still control the pipes, but crypto and AI control the flow.

Welcome to the new economy—where the only recession is in traditional thinking.

Recession Cancelled? Why Wall Street Is Divided on Bitcoin, AI, and Market Cycles

The US recession drumbeat refuses to fade, but markets are increasingly tuning it out.

On one side, Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi maintains a 48% probability that the US economy will tip into recession within the next 12 months. His outlook suggests lingering fragility despite resilient growth data.

Zandi’s warning echoes recent consumer and labor market data showing mixed signals. Retail sales remain strong, jobless claims have ticked higher, and inflation’s path remains uncertain.

“Investors who think the recession risk has gone away are mistaken,” Zandi cautioned.

The analyst notes that shocks in energy markets or tighter credit conditions could quickly upend growth.

On the other hand, Global Macro Investor’s Julien Bittel Visser insists the “recession is cancelled.” In a recent conversation with Anthony Pompliano, he dismissed traditional macro fears.

The investor highlighted how narratives of contraction are being replaced by enthusiasm around technology and digital assets.

“The only thing that matters now is AI and crypto…Everything else is just noise,” Visser said.

Visser argues that equity markets and bitcoin are primed for a melt-up as capital reallocates toward the only two trades that matter: artificial intelligence (AI) and crypto.

He pointed to fresh technical breakouts across Ethereum, Dogecoin, and sui as evidence of broadening market participation beyond Bitcoin.

He added that the MicroStrategy premium can measure that sentiment. A recent US crypto News publication explained this as the spread between the company’s Bitcoin holdings and its equity valuation.

When the premium expands, Visser argues, it signals investors are rediscovering risk appetite across the crypto complex.

Against this backdrop, Visser expects year-end portfolio reallocations to play a decisive role.

Institutional investors who missed Bitcoin’s surge past $100,000 may be forced to raise allocations before closing the books on 2025.

“The bears are crying in the casino,” he said.

This suggests both equities and Bitcoin could rally in tandem if liquidity conditions remain supportive.

Meanwhile, the clash between Zandi’s caution and Visser’s conviction for crypto markets captures a broader theme. Traditional macro signals still point to risk, but new regime dynamics are increasingly tied to technological revolutions and alternative assets.

If Visser is right, Bitcoin’s next leg higher may have less to do with GDP prints and more to do with the structural pull of AI-driven capital flows.

Chart of the Day

The graph shows a 48% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months, per Moody’s machine learning model, based on data since 1960. Historical highs above 40% didn’t always lead to recessions, indicating uncertainty.

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

• What are the crypto whales buying, selling, and holding?
• XRP price correction of 9% could set the stage for a rally — Here’s how.
• Ethereum faces the ghost of September: Profit-taking and chart warnings emerge.
• Crypto market rally faces FOMC test: Will momentum continue this week?
• Vietnam prepares for crypto exchange launch: Upbit steps in.
• Solana price rally eyes $284 despite local top risks hinting at a pullback.
• DOGE holders refuse to sell as rally heats up— Is a 2025 high in sight?
• Reasons why the PUMP price rally could extend despite whales offloading $8 million.
• Pump.fun fuels analyst debate over risks and opportunities of streaming tokens

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