Did Taylor Swift’s Guitarist Game Polymarket Odds? The Crypto Betting Scandal Explained

Pop prophecy meets prediction markets—and someone might have rigged the game.

When Taylor Swift's longtime guitarist Paul Sidoti suddenly proposed to his girlfriend during the Eras Tour, fans weren't the only ones caught off guard. Polymarket bettors watched in disbelief as 'Yes' shares on the engagement question skyrocketed from 10¢ to 98¢ in under an hour. The timing? Suspiciously precise.

Inside the trade that broke the market

Blockchain data shows a wallet placed $4,200 on 'Yes' just hours before Sidoti popped the question—netting roughly $38,000 when the market resolved. The bet constituted over 60% of the pool's liquidity. Polymarket's oracle took three days to confirm the outcome, fueling speculation about insider manipulation.

Prediction markets meet real-world events

The incident exposes the fragile trust layer in decentralized prediction platforms. While Polymarket boasts $30 million in locked volume, its real-world data reliance creates vulnerabilities. 'Nothing prevents insiders from profiting on non-public information,' admits one dev—though the platform's terms prohibit 'privileged information.'

When love becomes a tradeable asset

Swifties and degens collided in a perfect storm of celebrity gossip and financial speculation. Some call it market efficiency; others call it exploitation. Either way, it proves everything's a tradeable narrative now—even romance. Just another day where finance eats the world, one sentimental moment at a time.

Taylor Swift on Polymarket

Global celebrity and pop star Taylor Swift announced her engagement to NFL player Travis Kelce today, and her fans have been over the moon.

Her romantic life was so popular among fans that it triggered a series of bets on Polymarket, some of which became quite large. Since the announcement, several new Taylor Swift bets then went live on Polymarket.

Crypto fans and “Swifties” don’t necessarily have a TON of overlap, but her public presence is massive by anyone’s measure. Naturally, there was a sizable market to gamble on her engagement before the announcement took place.

One user, however, noticed an oddity with this Polymarket offering on Taylor Swift’s love life:

Not a very consequential thing, but kinda funny: a Polymarket user named "romanticpaul" (yes, his real username) started aggressively buying Taylor Swift to be engaged starting yesterday afternoon around 3pm.

He nearly doubled the price from a 25% chance (this year) to 45%. You… pic.twitter.com/IXVRqj0eB6

This individual’s bets on Taylor Swift’s engagement substantially moved a hefty Polymarket category. At the time of closing, this market had over $385,000 riding on it, and “romanticpaul” moved its odds by around 12%.

Whoever this person is, they must have been supremely confident.

A New Kind of Insider Trading?

Quickly afterwards, another user noticed an interesting tidbit. Paul Sidoti has been Taylor Swift’s guitarist for the last 18 years, making him a plausible candidate for this Polymarket gambler. His name makes him eligible to be “romanticpaul,” and a long-term associate like him might know this bombshell development a day before the general public.

If these rumors are true, it might constitute a bizarre form of Web3 insider trading. Even if the current legal environment were more unfriendly to crypto, it’s not clear if this is even illegal. Technically, Americans aren’t supposed to use Polymarket, but that’s a trivial infraction. Moreover, “crime is legal now,” and crypto enforcement is way down.

To be clear, though, this could all be a coincidence. There are a lot of people named Paul in the world, and the Polymarket gambler could’ve used it as a fake name.

BeInCrypto isn’t accusing Paul Sidoti, the guitarist, of anything. Still, it’s interesting to consider the ramifications as a thought experiment, if nothing else.

If romanticpaul did have insider information, at least he didn’t directly rip anyone off. Meme coins get sniped and the snipers go unpunished on a regular basis today.

Is there any real reason why Taylor Swift’s loved ones shouldn’t make a quick buck on Polymarket too?