3 US Economic Signals Crypto Traders Must Watch This Week
Fed whispers move markets—crypto's listening closer than ever.
Inflation's shadow looms large over digital assets this week as three key US economic indicators take center stage. While traditional markets obsess over quarterly reports, crypto traders know the real action happens when macroeconomic winds shift direction.
The CPI numbers drop first—always the headline grabber. Watch how Bitcoin reacts within minutes of release. Then comes retail sales data, the silent pulse check of consumer sentiment. Finally, jobless claims reveal whether Main Street's pain becomes Wall Street's gain.
Remember: the Fed's printer might be quiet, but its rhetoric still moves markets faster than any blockchain transaction. Crypto doesn't trade in isolation—it feasts on traditional finance's volatility while pretending to be above it all.
US Economic Events this Week
The following US economic signals and data could influence the portfolios of crypto traders and investors this week.
Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment
Two economic events on Monday and Friday will reflect consumer optimism, or a lack thereof. Data on Market Watch shows economists expect August US Consumer Confidence, due on Tuesday, to dip slightly to 96.5, down from July’s 97.2.
Meanwhile, the Consumer Sentiment report is due on Friday. Economists expect August US Consumer Sentiment to hold steady at 58.6.
Meanwhile, analysts cite crisis levels for the US consumer sentiment, with 58.6 presenting as one of the lowest readings this century.
US consumer sentiment is at CRISIS levels:
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell to 58.6 points in August, one of the lowest readings this century.
This is in line with the Great Financial Crisis levels and the 1980s recession levels. pic.twitter.com/wdYvMXRswg
Softer confidence implies weakening consumer spending power, which can pressure risk assets, including crypto. Similarly, a flat sentiment reading signals caution among households, reinforcing a fragile economic outlook.
Such readings matter for Bitcoin and crypto markets as they shape overall risk sentiment. Together, these gauges shape risk appetite and often ripple into Bitcoin and crypto markets.
For traders, weaker consumer metrics may stoke bets on Fed easing, indirectly supporting Bitcoin. Conversely, stronger readings typically boost equities, pulling liquidity away from digital assets in the short term.
Initial Jobless Claims
Another US economic signal this week is the initial jobless claims, which are coming into focus as labor market data grows as a fundamental driver for Bitcoin.
For the week ending August 16, 235,000 US citizens filed for unemployment. In the week ending August 23, however, experts see a drop in these filings to 230,000.
BREAKING: US jobless claims jumped by 11,000 last week to 235,000, the biggest rise in three months. Continuing claims hit 1.972 million, the highest since Nov 2021.https://t.co/e7un6GRfPn pic.twitter.com/fYWCVypvHr
Meanwhile, data also shows that it is taking a long time for jobless Americans to get new jobs. Continuing jobless claims have been steadily grinding higher at new post-2021 highs.
If jobless claims fall below the previous 235,000 reading, it WOULD signal labor market resilience, potentially reducing Fed rate-cut bets and weighing on Bitcoin’s short-term upside.
However, rising continuing claims would probably suggest deeper cracks in employment. This divergence keeps crypto markets sensitive to macro shifts, balancing growth Optimism against recessionary risks and potential liquidity pivots.
PCE
Another US economic data point to watch is the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), which tracks consumer spending on goods and services.
PCE data comes out this week. Headline is expected to be 2.6% y/y, while Core is expected to be 2.9% (up slightly from prior month).
The trend is also not looking great, as it appears to have bottomed months ago. https://t.co/pvnnZIy8qx pic.twitter.com/ovBQ6N5NW7
Indeed, data on MarketWatch shows economists forecast the headline to be 2.6% YoY while anticipating CORE PCE to be 2.9%, slightly higher than July’s 2.8% reading.
Higher core PCE at 2.9% signals sticky inflation, potentially reducing chances for Fed rate cuts. That could pressure bitcoin and crypto in the short term by tightening liquidity.
However, persistent inflation may also revive Bitcoin’s long-term appeal as a hedge against monetary debasement.
As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading for $112,579, down by over 2% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, Ethereum is exchanging hands for $4,711, after testing new highs over the weekend.
