Grayscale Bets Big: Dogecoin Trust Eyes Spot ETF Conversion with 75% Approval Odds in 2025

Wall Street's meme-coin moment inches closer as Grayscale makes its play.

The crypto asset manager just filed to flip its Dogecoin Trust into a spot ETF—because nothing says 'mature market' like institutionalizing internet money. If approved, it'd mark the first time DOGE gets the full regulated treatment alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

Analysts peg approval chances at 3-in-4 for 2025. Not bad for an asset that started as a joke—though skeptics whisper this might just be Grayscale's latest attempt to monetize hype before the SEC inevitably rains on the parade.

One thing's certain: the suits are finally learning to speak meme.

Market Odds Favor a Dogecoin ETF Approval This Year

According to the Aug. 15 S-1 filing, the new ETF’s goal is to give investors direct exposure to Dogecoin’s price without requiring them to hold the asset themselves.

Grayscale Investments Sponsors, LLC and Grayscale Operating, LLC will co-sponsor the product. CSC Delaware Trust Company will act as trustee, while BNY Mellon will take on transfer agent and administrator duties.

Additionally, Coinbase and Coinbase Custody Trust Company will handle the fund’s brokerage and custody services.

But Grayscale is not alone in the race for a Dogecoin-focused fund.

Competitors Rex-Osprey and Bitwise have also submitted applications for dogecoin ETFs, signaling growing competition to corner the meme coin investment niche.

So far, the SEC has not approved any Dogecoin ETF, reflecting its cautious stance toward altcoin-linked products. That caution stands in contrast to Europe, where the meme coin exchange-traded products have already gained traction.

Dogecoin, originally created as a joke in 2013, has grown into a top-10 digital asset with a market capitalization in the tens of billions.

Its pop-culture rise, amplified by Elon Musk and retail traders, has since evolved into significant institutional adoption. As of today, some companies now accept Doge for payments or include it in corporate treasury strategies.

Still, risks remain. Dogecoin’s volatility and limited institutional use compared with Bitcoin and ethereum could give the SEC pause.

However, market sentiment leans optimistic due to the current pro-crypto US government administration.

Crypto bettors on Polymarket currently assign a 75% probability that U.S. regulators will approve a DOGE ETF before year-end.

If approved, analysts say the product could bridge the divide between Dogecoin’s grassroots retail following and institutional capital.