Cardano (ADA) Price Battle: Retail vs. Whales—Here’s the Tipping Point
Cardano’s ADA is stuck in a tug-of-war between retail traders and crypto whales—and one critical factor could break the deadlock.
Who’s winning? Retail’s stacking ADA like it’s a Black Friday sale, while whales are playing the long game—because, of course, they can afford to.
The decider? Liquidity. Thin order books mean even modest buys or sells trigger wild price swings. And let’s be real: in crypto, ‘market depth’ is often just a fancy term for ‘hope.’
If retail FOMO surges, ADA could rip past resistance. But if whales dump? Well, enjoy the discount—until the next ‘institutional adoption’ narrative kicks in.
Pro tip: Watch the 24h trading volume. When whales move, they don’t exactly tip-toe.
Super Whales Trim Holdings as Network Activity Declines
On-chain data shows Cardano’s biggest wallets, holding from 1 billion ADA up to infinity, have cut their holdings from 5.43% in late June to 5.02% now, signaling a clear bearish tilt from major players. Even though the percentage dip doesn’t read much, even a half-a-percent drop is massive when it comes to whale holdings.
Adding to this pressure, active addresses on the Cardano network are sliding, per the monthly chart. Addresses are down over 40% since peaking on 18th July, at 42,000.
This drop coincided with the ADA price dip, as the peak preceded the local top of $0.92. The drop in addresses might be one of the reasons for the whale apathy.
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Retail Stays Bullish While Short Pressure Builds
Despite whales trimming their stakes, retail traders remain confident, with netflows from exchanges staying negative for months, meaning more ADA is being withdrawn than deposited. Normally, this is bullish; it shows holders are accumulating, not selling.
But derivatives traders are siding with the whales. Bitget’s 30-day liquidation map shows $141.7 million in short positions versus just $74 million in longs, a clear bet that ADA’s price has more room to fall. And these traders are clearly turning bearish. This explains the three-way battle: featuring whales, retail, and leverage traders.
If whale dumping continues, shorts could take control, driving ADA lower and forcing more liquidations. But a sudden short squeeze, led by retail sentiment, could flip the script, letting Optimism win.
Key Cardano Price Levels in Focus
ADA is hovering NEAR crucial support levels at $0.71 and $0.68. A breakdown could drag prices to $0.62, matching the bearish whale and short positioning. Based on the liquidation map, a drop to $0.62 will liquidate whatever long positions remain.
But if bulls reclaim $0.73 and $0.78, momentum could flip back to the upside, invalidating the bearish hypothesis. That could then set a push toward $0.84 and $0.93, in favor of retail. Also, that WOULD liquidate the short positions.
For now, the market remains in a standoff, with whales trimming, retail holders clinging on, and derivatives traders waiting for a breakdown to profit. One factor, whether the short-heavy positioning triggers a squeeze or adds pressure, could soon decide who wins this battle for Cardano’s next big move.
