Dogecoin (DOGE) Teeters at Critical Resistance: Will History Repeat or Will Bulls Break Through?
Dogecoin's price action is flirting with a familiar make-or-break level—again. Will this time be different, or are traders setting up for another 'buy the rumor, sell the news' circus?
The Resistance Rematch
DOGE faces its third test of a key price barrier this year. Each previous attempt got smacked down—but memecoins love defying logic (until they don’t).
Whale Watching
On-chain data shows big holders accumulating near this level. Either they know something retail doesn’t, or they’re about to dump bags on the next sucker rally. Classic crypto.
The Elon Factor
Never count out a Musk tweet to juice DOGE’s pumps—or trigger its crashes. The ultimate wildcard for a 'joke' asset that somehow became a $10B market cap 'investment.'
Buckle up. This could get volatile—or just another snooze-fest rejection. Either way, hedge funds will profit while retail chases the dream.
Active Addresses Still Not Supporting the Move
Even with the price climbing in late June, Dogecoin’s active address count hasn’t picked up. The number of daily transacting wallets, a key signal of retail and organic demand, has stayed largely flat with minor spikes across intervals.
That’s a red flag. It suggests the rally attempts are not being backed by new or returning users.
When prices move higher without a corresponding rise in address activity, the rally is often short-lived. Past Dogecoin breakout attempts show that address spikes either precede or follow strong moves. That’s missing here, and it shows.
Active Addresses track wallets that interact with the network daily. If they decline or stay stagnant, it usually reflects weak user participation and low transaction demand.
MVRV Z-Score Shows Undervaluation
Dogecoin’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-Score remains below zero, signaling that most holders are sitting on unrealized losses. This means that sell-off risks are relatively low.
Historically, Doge has often rallied after dipping into negative MVRV territory, with price usually bottoming just as the Z-Score starts to rebound. But this time, that recovery hasn’t kicked in yet.
In past cycles, when MVRV turned negative and then reversed upward, it marked the beginning of fresh upside. But DOGE’s current MVRV trend is still flat, suggesting that even though the coin is undervalued, the market hasn’t started re-accumulating in size.
MVRV Z-Score compares DOGE’s current market value to the average cost basis of all holders. A negative reading means the average wallet is in loss, which often signals undervaluation, but only becomes bullish if followed by renewed buying pressure.
Price Structure Still Bearish, Despite Range Retests
Dogecoin continues to trade inside a descending triangle pattern. The $0.17555 resistance has been tested multiple times. Meanwhile, support levels NEAR $0.161 have been repeatedly broken and reclaimed, a sign of weakening structure.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has been trending lower, even as the Doge price holds higher lows: a classic bearish divergence. This means that while the price looks stable, the underlying strength is weakening. The flat active address count reinforces this finding.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures momentum. A falling RSI paired with rising DOGE price indicates buyers are losing control, often preceding a pullback. Therefore, even a resistance breakout might not be the strongest possible sign, as a pullback might be on the cards.
If the price slides under $0.161 again, the bearish triangle setup persists. The invalidation zone remains below $0.1567, with a break there opening room for a deeper correction.
However, if bulls manage to push through $0.17555, the next resistance is near $0.1832.
