Polymarket’s Election Prediction Edge: Fading or Evolving?

Once the gold standard for political betting, Polymarket now faces scrutiny as election odds shift unpredictably. Traders whisper about slipping accuracy—while the platform's liquidity pools swell to record highs. Something doesn't add up.

Market mechanics under the microscope

The prediction giant's hybrid model—part decentralized oracle, part crowd wisdom—shows cracks as midterm elections approach. Sharp bettors point to divergences between Polymarket prices and FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregates.

Liquidity vs. accuracy tradeoff?

With $12M+ locked in current election contracts, Polymarket's TVL suggests confidence. But veteran traders note increasing 'drift' between market prices and real-world outcomes—a trend that could scare off institutional players chasing alpha.

Prediction markets aren't dead—they're just becoming another casino for degens to lose rent money on 'sure things.' Meanwhile, the house always wins.

Why Didn’t Polymarket Predict Zohran’s Win?

Polymarket, a famous online prediction market, has cornered an interesting niche in election bets. It garnered huge volumes in bets before the US Presidential election, correctly predicting Trump’s victory.

Despite this, Polymarket’s electoral relevance might be in question, as the platform totally failed to predict Zohran Mamdani’s upset win in the NYC mayoral primary.

As soon as Polymarket started taking bets on this race, it had former Governor Andrew Cuomo as the favorite. The platform even gave him 80% odds of victory for two months straight.

Although Polymarket briefly listed Zohran as the favorite on Election Day, its final assessment was a Cuomo win until results started coming in.

This track record has left some in the crypto community to question the platform’s relevance in elections. Unfortunately, it isn’t an isolated incident.

Meanwhile, Polymarket bets on the new Pope were very popular, but it gave the winner only 0.3% odds of success. Between Pope Leo and Zohran, was Polymarket’s TRUMP prediction just a fluke? It begs the question whether crypto users are just using the platform for highly unlikely bets for a bleak chance of major fortunes.

Even if that is the case, the platform still has noticeable utility. Although Polymarket put Cuomo in the lead until results came in, it gave Zohran 94.6% odds of victory within the first 30 minutes.

Pollster and pundit Nate Silver praised the company for calling the race so early while traditional media outlets hedged their bets for several hours.

I'm biased but it's super nice to have prediction markets on Election Night that cut to the chase instead of all the hedging you see in typical media coverage. pic.twitter.com/FK2eK9i2SE

In other words, Polymarket did have a noticeable use case in Zohran’s success. Most legacy media were stunned by his upset win, and for good reason, refusing to call the race until Cuomo conceded.

However, as soon as the predictions platform got the first results, its community overwhelmingly believed the landslide narrative.