Will Trump Also Pardon SBF? Market Speculates on FTX Ex-CEO’s Fate in 2025
- Why Is the Crypto Market Betting on an SBF Pardon?
- What Makes SBF’s Case Different From CZ’s?
- Could Politics Actually Swing a Pardon?
- What’s Next for Crypto and White House Clemency?
- FAQs: Trump, SBF, and the Crypto Pardon Drama
Donald Trump's recent pardon of Binance's CZ has reignited debates about the political use of clemency—and now, speculation is swirling around whether FTX's disgraced ex-CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) could be next. Prediction markets like Polymarket have seen bets on a potential SBF pardon surge from 5% to over 13% following Trump's move, reflecting growing belief that the president may continue leveraging his authority to cozy up to the crypto industry. But with SBF serving a 25-year sentence for fraud and political ties to Democrats, the odds remain contentious. Here’s why the market is buzzing—and what it means for crypto’s future in Washington.
Why Is the Crypto Market Betting on an SBF Pardon?
Trump’s pardon of CZ wasn’t just a legal decision—it was a political lightning rod. By forgiving the Binance founder’s money-laundering lapses (resulting in a mere 4-month sentence), TRUMP signaled a stark pro-crypto pivot, contrasting sharply with Biden-era regulation. The move even revived hopes for Ross Ulbricht, the Silk Road creator freed earlier under Trump. Now, traders are asking: Could SBF, despite his 25-year sentence for FTX’s $10B collapse, be next? Polymarket’s odds spike suggests some think so, but the parallels are shaky. CZ cooperated with authorities; SBF fought them. CZ’s crimes were compliance failures; SBF’s involved outright fraud and customer fund theft. Yet, Trump’s eagerness to position himself as crypto’s champion keeps the rumor mill churning.
What Makes SBF’s Case Different From CZ’s?
Let’s be real: SBF’s crimes are in another league. While CZ’s Binance faced anti-money laundering (AML) slip-ups, FTX’s downfall was a masterclass in deception—secretly funneling user funds to Alameda Research, manipulating markets, and bankrolling Democratic campaigns. Unlike CZ or Ulbricht, SBF showed zero remorse during his trial, doubling down on excuses. And here’s the kicker: Trump pardoning a top Democrat donor? That’s a hard sell, even for a president courting crypto votes. As one BTCC analyst quipped, "Trump’s pro-crypto, but he’s not pro-political-suicide."
Could Politics Actually Swing a Pardon?
Stranger things have happened. Trump’s clemency strategy seems less about justice and more about optics—using pardons to rally crypto backers ahead of the 2026 midterms. But SBF’s baggage complicates things. His ties to Democrats (he was their second-largest donor in 2022) make him a toxic beneficiary for a GOP administration. Meanwhile, victims of FTX’s collapse—many still awaiting restitution—would howl at the injustice. Still, if Trump views crypto as a wedge issue, could he overlook SBF’s partisan past? Prediction markets say maybe, but legal experts peg the odds below 20%.
What’s Next for Crypto and White House Clemency?
One thing’s clear: Trump’s pardons are reshaping crypto’s regulatory landscape. By freeing CZ and Ulbricht, he’s telegraphing a hands-off approach—a stark contrast to Biden’s SEC crackdowns. For the industry, that’s a bullish signal, even if SBF remains locked up. But as CoinMarketCap data shows, FTX’s ghost still haunts investor trust; a pardon might backfire by reviving memories of the exchange’s catastrophic failure. For now, the market’s betting on symbolism over substance—but in crypto, symbolism moves markets.
FAQs: Trump, SBF, and the Crypto Pardon Drama
How likely is a Trump pardon for SBF?
Polymarket odds suggest a 13% chance, but legal analysts argue it’s closer to 5-10% given SBF’s severe crimes and Democratic ties.
Why did Trump pardon CZ?
To signal pro-crypto policies and differentiate from Biden’s regulatory stance. CZ’s light sentence and cooperation also made him a low-risk candidate.
Has Trump pardoned other crypto figures?
Yes—Silk Road’s Ross Ulbricht in 2024, marking Trump’s first major crypto clemency before CZ.
