Can XRP Price Recover to $3? Key Indicators Suggest Potential Breakout
- What Does XRP's Recent Price Action Reveal?
- Is XRP Overvalued? MVRV Z-Score Tells an Interesting Story
- Are Long-Term Holders Selling Their XRP?
- Why Are Active Addresses Surging?
- What Technical Levels Matter Now?
- Is Accumulation Occurring Despite Moderate Volume?
- What Could Derail the Recovery to $3?
- XRP Price Prediction: Realistic Path to $3
- XRP Price Analysis FAQ
XRP has shown remarkable resilience in July 2025, breaking through a symmetrical flag formation and maintaining momentum despite profit-taking. With key resistance at $2.35 and multiple technical indicators suggesting room for growth, crypto analysts are watching whether the digital asset can retest its $3 peak from early 2025. This in-depth analysis examines on-chain metrics, trading patterns, and investor behavior to assess XRP's potential trajectory.
What Does XRP's Recent Price Action Reveal?
XRP broke out of its symmetrical flag pattern on July 3, 2025, pushing past the $2.20 resistance level. While the breakout wasn't explosive, it occurred with gradually increasing volume - currently trading around $2.27 with $2.35 representing the next critical resistance. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) reached 1.6 in early June 2025, typically signaling local tops when exceeding 1.5. However, XRP's price has held steady despite profit-taking, suggesting either market strength or strong absorption of selling pressure. Historical patterns show similar consolidation phases often precede major moves, as seen in Q1 2025 when XRP rallied to $3.
Is XRP Overvalued? MVRV Z-Score Tells an Interesting Story
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score currently sits at 2.0, far below its 6.5 peak during January 2025's rally. This metric compares market cap to realized cap (the aggregate price at which all coins last moved). Scores below 3 typically indicate room for growth before overvaluation concerns emerge. For context, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score hovered around 2.5 before its 2024 halving rally. The current reading suggests XRP isn't in dangerous overbought territory yet, though traders should monitor this closely if prices approach $2.78 resistance.
Are Long-Term Holders Selling Their XRP?
HODL Waves data reveals remarkable conviction among XRP investors. Over 40% of circulating supply hasn't moved in more than a year, with long-term holder cohorts remaining stable despite recent price action. This contrasts sharply with patterns seen during the 2021 bull run when older coins moved aggressively. The stability suggests long-term investors anticipate higher prices, reducing potential sell pressure at key resistance levels. For comparison, only 28% of Ethereum's supply remained dormant during its 2024 breakout.
Why Are Active Addresses Surging?
Active addresses and wallets transacting XRP spiked multiple times in June 2025, each preceding price rallies. These activity bursts typically indicate either new buyer participation or whale accumulation. Data from Santiment shows similar patterns preceded XRP's 2023 breakout when active addresses surged 47% before a 60% price increase. The current activity suggests growing network utilization, though traders should watch whether this sustains through July.
What Technical Levels Matter Now?
A new flag formation has emerged on daily charts with clearer support/resistance lines. Key levels to watch:
- Immediate resistance: $2.35 (confluence zone)
- Secondary targets: $2.48, $2.60, $2.65 upon breakout
- Major psychological barrier: $2.78
- Critical support: $2.20 (must hold to maintain bullish structure)
Is Accumulation Occurring Despite Moderate Volume?
The Accumulation/Distribution Line has trended upward since April 2025, confirming capital inflows despite unspectacular volume. This indicator weights price movement against volume - upward trends suggest accumulation even without explosive trading activity. The gradual slope implies large investors aren't aggressively distributing, though the BTCC research team notes this could change if macroeconomic conditions worsen. For reference, similar patterns preceded XRP's 2024 rally when accumulation continued for 11 weeks before a 140% surge.
What Could Derail the Recovery to $3?
Several risk factors could prevent XRP from reaching $3:
- Failure to hold $2.20 support would invalidate the bullish structure
- Regulatory developments regarding Ripple's ongoing SEC case
- Broader crypto market downturns (BTC dominance currently at 42%)
- Unexpected whale movements (top 10 addresses control 28% of supply)
- Declining network activity if active addresses plateau
XRP Price Prediction: Realistic Path to $3
The roadmap to $3 requires several milestones:
- Convert $2.35 resistance into support (failed in 3 attempts since June)
- Maintain SOPR below 1.8 to avoid excessive profit-taking
- Sustain MVRV Z-Score below 3.5 to prevent overvaluation signals
- Hold above the 50-day EMA (currently $2.12)
- See increasing futures open interest without excessive leverage
Historical data from TradingView shows XRP typically consolidates for 18-24 days before major breakouts. The current pattern, if it follows 2025's rhythm, could see decisive movement by late July. However, this article does not constitute investment advice.
XRP Price Analysis FAQ
What is the key resistance level for XRP?
The immediate resistance sits at $2.35, a confluence zone where previous rallies have stalled. Breaking this with conviction could open path to $2.65-$2.78.
How reliable is the MVRV Z-Score indicator?
MVRV Z-Score has accurately predicted 78% of XRP's major tops and bottoms since 2020 when readings exceed 3.5 or fall below -1.2.
Are whales accumulating XRP?
On-chain data suggests gradual accumulation since April, though not at the pace seen before the January 2025 rally. Whale transactions (>$1M) have increased 22% month-over-month.
What exchange offers the best XRP trading pairs?
BTCC exchange provides competitive XRP/USDT and XRP/BTC pairs with DEEP liquidity, though traders should compare fees across platforms.
Could SEC news impact XRP's price?
Absolutely. While not currently priced in, any unfavorable developments in Ripple's ongoing case could trigger selloffs like the 65% drop seen after July 2023's ruling.
