FOMC倒计时——比特币多头为何需要保持警惕

美联储利率决议前夕，加密市场屏息以待。

传统金融的货币政策动向依然能轻易搅动数字资产市场的神经——尽管去中心化信仰者总爱宣称比特币早已与传统体系脱钩。

加息预期升温可能瞬间抽干市场流动性，那些杠杆过高的多头恐怕要经历一场残酷的压力测试。

历史数据不会说谎：过去12次FOMC会议后，比特币有9次出现超过5%的日内波动。

聪明钱早已开始布局：CME比特币期货未平仓合约激增37%，看跌期权溢价持续走阔。

别忘了那些宏观对冲基金——他们正等着用美联储决议作为砸盘借口，好在更低位置回补仓位。

真正的考验不在于会议结果本身，而在于市场是否已经过度定价了鹰派预期。

毕竟在传统金融老爷们眼里，加密货币永远是他们货币政策实验的白老鼠——虽然这些老爷们自己印钞时可比任何DeFi协议都奔放得多。

Key Takeaways

Could the FOMC change the game?

Dovish vibes look priced in, and macro flows into ETFs, treasuries, and AI are still capping Bitcoin.

Why is Bitcoin lagging tech and alts?

Because risk capital is rotating into equities and altcoins, with Nasdaq at ATH and SOL tripling BTC’s ROI.

The U.S. stock market is buzzing. 

The S&P500 index has surged by nearly 32% off its April low. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite Index rallied by 50% to hit a new all-time high. On the contrary, Bitcoin’s [BTC] price dropped by 38% on the price charts.

As expected, this divergence is now showing up on-chain. In fact, the BTC–Nasdaq correlation flipped negative to -0.14 at press time – Marking its lowest level since September 2024. Simply put, this means that Bitcoin may be starting to lag tech.

Source: CryptoQuant

According to AMBCrypto, such a decoupling is a sign of risk capital rotating into equities. With the FOMC less than 48 hours out and 96% odds of a 400–425 bps cut, traders may be clearly front-running a bullish setup in U.S stocks.

On the weekly, the Nasdaq blasted to an ATH, while BTC seemed to be stuck 7% below its $124k ATH. As David Hernandez from 21Shares told AMBCrypto, it’s a clear signal that risk-seeking investors are looking beyond Bitcoin.

“With macro uncertainty before next week mostly out of the way, all eyes are on Chair Powell and the Fed, where a rate cut and dovish forward guidance could catapult bitcoin back to $118K-$120K. The rate cut opens the door for risk-seeking investors to look beyond Bitcoin too – to tokens like Solana and XRP, whose ETFs are highly anticipated to debut this fall.”

Bitcoin faces headwinds from alternative asset flows

Altcoins are clearly giving Bitcoin a run for its money this cycle.

On 8 September, TOTAL2 (ex-BTC market cap) topped $1.74 trillion, grabbing 45.8% of the market share. What’s more, the Altcoin Season Index ripped to 80 – Its highest level since the election run.

Supporting this move, the SOL/BTC ratio jumped by 10.5% in a month, with solana [SOL] spiking by nearly 3x vs BTC’s 6% ROI. Adding firepower, 16 treasuries now hold 10.29 million SOL, keeping capital locked in alt momentum.

Source: TradingView (SOL/BTC)

In short, Bitcoin’s post-FOMC dovish vibes might be getting ahead of themselves.

The cycle’s shifted, with risk-assets front-running flows and keeping BTC in check. ETFs, treasuries, and AI HYPE are some of the macro plays sucking up capital, something even David Hernandez from 21Shares flagged.

“Momentum in the broader digital asset market has also picked up. ethereum and Solana have seen sizeable gains recently, in large part driven by a wave of announcements from Digital Asset Treasury Companies (“DATcos”) planning to hold major cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets – a development reviving institutional interest.”