Altcoin Season Index Soars to 76 as BTC.D Slips – But Major Risks Still Loom!

Altcoins are roaring back—hard. The Altcoin Season Index just hit 76 while Bitcoin dominance slips away. That's the kind of momentum that gets traders buzzing and portfolios pumping.

Market Rotation in Full Swing

Money's flooding out of BTC and into altcoins. We're seeing double-digit pumps across mid-caps, meme coins are waking up, and even some DeFi gems are printing fresh ATHs. This isn't just a blip—it's a full-scale rotation.

But Here's the Catch…

Volatility hasn't magically disappeared. Leverage is still sky-high, regulatory clouds are hanging around, and let's be real—some of these projects have whitepapers thinner than a trader's patience during a dip. The crypto space loves a good rally, but it has a short memory when things flip.

Timing is everything. Jump in too late, and you're buying the top. Too early, and you're bag-holding through another correction. Classic crypto dilemma—greed and fear sharing the same chart.

So yeah, altseason is here. But if you think risk disappeared just because green candles are back… you probably also believe in 'financial advisors' who still think blockchain is a type of bike lock.

Key Takeaways

Altcoin Season Index hits 76, DOGE/BTC rallies, and BTC.D prints lower lows. Will the index defy the 2024 cycle?

Beyond macro risks, a major headwind to Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has been the altcoin market. On paper, BTC is reclaiming back-to-back resistance levels, the latest around $112k.

And yet, BTC.D hasn’t recovered 60% of inflows, printing a red weekly candle. Meanwhile, TOTAL2 (market cap ex-BTC) is up 3.58%, showing capital is still chasing high-beta alts.

The result? The Altcoin Season Index jumped 13% to 76 in a single day, officially signaling the first full-blown altseason since the election run.

This also underscores the persistent risk-off behavior in BTC flows.

Source: Blockchaincenter

Simply put, traders are chasing outsized upside outside of Bitcoin.

Case in point: Dogecoin [DOGE]. While ethereum [ETH] is hitting a wall, with the ETH/BTC ratio failing at 0.04 resistance, DOGE/BTC ratio is ripping nearly 10% in less than two weeks, eyeing the 0.0000024 ceiling.

Interestingly, the current market cycle mirrors the previous election run, memecoin mania is surging, BTC.D is slipping, and ETH/BTC remains capped. 

Given how the Altcoin Season Index broke out in 2024 during similar conditions, could we be witnessing a repeat performance?

Traders, why caution is warranted!

During the election cycle, BTC.D posted its worst weekly run in two years.

The Altcoin Season Index hit 88 by early December, dragging BTC.D down 10% to 54% in the same stretch. However, when BTC.D bounced back to 65% by mid-June, the Altcoin Season Index had crashed to 12.

Alts got wrecked as overstretched positions blew up. Fast-forward to now, Coinalyze shows bitcoin Open Interest (OI) dominance at 38%, meaning alt leverage is running 50% higher than BTC, setting up a crowded playbook.

Source: TradingView (BTC.D)

In short, the Altcoin Season Index is flirting with another blow-off top. 

But there’s a key divergence: BTC.D has posted two lower lows since its 65% peak. Unlike the election cycle, when capital rotated back into Bitcoin [BTC], alt inflows continue to climb, keeping BTC.D under pressure.

Why does this matter? According to AMBCrypto, investors are staying away from Bitcoin, keeping it locked in a chop.

As long as this pattern holds, the Altcoin Season Index stays in focus and could challenge its 88 top.