Bitcoin’s LTH Strategy Shift: The $120K Catalyst Nobody Saw Coming

Long-term holders just flipped the script—and BTC's price rockets might be just getting started.

The quiet revolution in HODLer behavior

When Bitcoin's most committed investors change tactics, markets tremble. This isn't your 2021 bull run playbook—it's something far more calculated.

Supply shock math doesn't lie

Every coin pulled from circulation by LTHs tightens the noose on available supply. With institutional demand now institutional frenzy, the $120K target starts looking conservative.

Wall Street's FOMO meets crypto's diamond hands

Traditional finance finally 'gets it'—just as retail investors start behaving like hedge funds. The irony would be delicious if it weren't so profitable.

One thing's certain: when the 'smart money' starts copying crypto natives, you'll wish you'd bought the dip yesterday. (But hey, at least your bank's 0.5% savings account is FDIC insured, right?)

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin daily sales from long-term holders have now dropped below $1 billion, a threshold they consistently exceeded last month. On-chain metrics confirm that investors have shifted back to holding, reducing their exposure to exchanges.

Bitcoin [BTC] has posted consistent weekend gains, with the asset now less than $3,000 away from reclaiming its all-time high of $123,091, per CoinMarketCap.

Analysis shows the recent strength comes from reduced selling pressure among long-term holders, with buy activity gradually returning to the market.

Are long-term holders turning bullish?

Glassnode’s latest report revealed a correlation between Bitcoin’s long term holder sales and the asset’s push toward $120,000, as trading volume surged 32.95% to $79 billion, at press time, in the past day per CoinMarketCap.

These long-term holders have moved from offloading $1 billion worth of Bitcoin daily on average in July to selling only hundreds of millions since August.

Source: Glassnode

This shift suggests renewed interest among this group of investors, potentially supporting rising demand.

Unlike the November 2024 peak—when Bitcoin’s decline was driven by ETF holders in the 6–12 month range—last week’s selling came from previous cycle holders in the 3–5 year range, now taking profits.

This has added to the bullish sentiment, as more recent holders are choosing to keep their positions.

Investors prefers to hold Bitcoin again

While selling pressure has eased, analysis shows that the investors who previously pushed daily sales above $1 billion are shifting toward long-term holding.

Binary CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) data, which tracks long-term investor activity, shows the metric has dropped to zero—indicating stronger holding behavior.

Source: CryptoQuant

Fund Flow Ratio data from CryptoQuant also points to reduced bitcoin interaction with exchanges. At the time of writing, the ratio had fallen to 0.057, meaning fewer assets are moving to exchanges.

Typically, lower exchange inflows signal buying interest, as whales prefer holding over immediate sell-offs.

AMBCrypto’s tracking of exchange activity has also detected emerging buy patterns.

Investors resume Bitcoin buying

The spot market appears bullish. In the past day, this group of investors has scooped up $51 million worth of Bitcoin, marking a shift in market activity.

This follows a $242 million sell-off on the 10th of August, recorded on the Spot Exchange Netflow on CoinGlass representing the single highest day sell-off of Bitcoin since the 9th of June.

Source: CoinGlass

If accumulation continues, and long-term holders shift back toward holding rather than selling, Bitcoin is likely to take another leg up, break its all-time high, and enter price discovery.