Why Bitcoin’s $100K Hold Isn’t Retail—It’s a Liquidity Crunch

Bitcoin’s grip on $100K isn’t fueled by mom-and-pop investors—it’s a liquidity squeeze playing out in real time. Here’s the breakdown.

The market’s whispering one thing while the blockchain screams another. Retail FOMO? Barely a blip. The real story? A structural shortage of liquid supply.

Whales aren’t selling. Miners are hoarding. ETFs are vacuuming up coins faster than a Wall Street intern on espresso. Result? A price floor that defies ‘overbought’ warnings—and a market tighter than a VC’s pitch deck.

So next time some suit claims ‘retail is back,’ laugh politely. The numbers don’t lie—this is institutional-grade scarcity. And as any hedge fund manager will tell you (between martinis), scarcity bends markets. Until liquidity returns, $100K might just be the new baseline.

Bonus cynicism: Watch TradFi ‘experts’ pivot from ‘bubble’ to ‘digital gold’ faster than a stablecoin depegging.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin’s sustained rally is underpinned by a prolonged liquidity shortage, not retail speculation. What happens if whales finally start booking profits?

Bitcoin [BTC] has held above $100k for 89 days, reflecting sustained growth with healthy market corrections along the way. 

But as analysts dig into the data, the real engine behind this rally isn’t the retail crowd—it’s a deepening supply crisis. 

Exchange Netflows tell the real story

According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s average Exchange Netflow on centralized exchanges has been negative almost every day since late February 2024.

Only two days recorded net inflows; on every other day, coins left exchanges faster than they arrived.

Source: CryptoQuant

And so, BTC available liquidity in the spot market has declined gradually, creating a supply shortage and, in turn, fueling growth.

Bitcoin scarcity deepens

Supporting this thesis, data from Bitbo shows Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow ratio surged to 369.4K BTC.

Source: Bitbo

In fact, the Stock-to-Flow model projects a theoretical BTC price of $3.2 million. Typically, a tightening supply against steady or rising demand pushes prices higher.

Whales are in full accumulation mode

In the previous cycles, Bitcoin rallied backed by speculative and retail demand. Now, market power dynamics have shifted, and large entities are the driving force. 

According to Checkonchain, bitcoin whales have exhibited maximum restraint in selling. As such, Whale to Exchange Balance Change has mainly remained negative for the past 3 months. 

Source: Checkonchain

At press time, Whale’s exchange balance was -73k BTC, while Mega Whale’s balance was -19k BTC. A negative balance for a sustained period signals that whales have refused to sell despite record-breaking profits. 

Spot ETF demand compounds the pressure

Significantly, another key factor driving Bitcoin’s Liquidity decline is institutional demand for BTC through Spot ETFs. 

Interestingly, the declining liquidity coincides with the approval of BTC Spot ETFs in early 2024. Since then, Bitcoin held by ETFs has exceeded 1.3 million BTC, worth over $149 billion. 

Source: Checkonchain

Such a massive uptick in Bitcoin ETF AUM reflects sustained accumulation from institutions and other investors indirectly.

This demand has played a significant role in pushing BTC to its recent ATH, since retail demand has remained relatively minimal. 

How far can the current demand propel BTC?

According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, Bitcoin experienced sustained growth amid significant demand from whales and institutions.

As a result, BTC scarcity has surged significantly, reaching a new high, which is a key driver for a sustained upward momentum. 

That said, if the prevailing demand across major players persists, Bitcoin will recover from the recent correction and continue with the uptrend.

A trend reversal may see BTC reclaim $117k resistance, where it faced multiple rejections, and target a new ATH.

However, if large entities turn bearish and start selling, the correction will deepen, and BTC could seek support around 110,5722.