Bitcoin Rainbow Chart’s $200K Bull Run Forecast – Are We Headed for Crypto Euphoria in 2025?

Bitcoin's rainbow chart just flashed its most bullish signal yet—and traders are scrambling to front-run the potential 2025 supercycle. The logarithmic growth curve that called past tops and bottoms now points to a staggering $200K price target. But can history repeat, or is this another case of 'this time it’s different'?

Decoding the rainbow’s stripes

The model—which plots BTC’s price against its historical volatility bands—suggests we’re entering the 'buy with both hands' zone. Previous cycles saw similar patterns before parabolic rallies, though Wall Street analysts warn past performance doesn’t guarantee future results (especially when their bonuses depend on saying that).

Market mechanics at play

With the halving’s supply shock now fully priced in and institutional ETFs sucking up coins faster than miners can produce them, the stage looks set for a liquidity squeeze. Retail FOMO hasn’t even kicked in yet—when it does, that’s when things get truly irrational.

Just remember: rainbows appear before storms too. The same chart that predicts $200K also shows a 'max bubble' territory where every prior cycle peaked. Whether this time truly is different or just another case of greater fools remains to be seen—but for now, the bulls are charging.

Bitcoin’s Rainbow Chart shares an optimistic prediction

Source: Bitbo

Using a more conservative model of the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart called the Halving Price Regression (HPR), AMBCrypto tried to mark where the current cycle top might arrive. The HPR excludes the HYPE cycle and uses plots a non-linear regression curve based only on BTC’s price on 3 halving dates.

BTC appeared to still be in a “buy” zone. Based on the length of the previous cycle, we can expect this cycle’s top to arrive sometime in Q4 2025. Assuming it is the start of November, Bitcoin’s Rainbow Chart suggested that the price WOULD be at least $157k, or even an optimistic $217k.

It is notoriously hard to predict when the cycle could find its top, and what the price could be. In fact, another popular and reliable indicator, the Pi Cycle Top indicator, showed that the cycle might be nowhere NEAR its zenith.

Source: Bitbo

The 350-day SMA x2, the purple line, would need to see a crossover by the 111-day moving average. At the time of writing, the former (purple) was at $172k, while the latter (cyan) was $97.7k. This suggested that should this indicator fire a top signal again, Bitcoin’s 111-day MA would have to climb to at least $172k.

To drive the 111-day moving average that high, BTC’s price must go even higher, and stay higher. If Bitcoin’s Rainbow Chart and the Pi Cycle Top Indicator prove reliable once again, we could see the price push well above $200k.

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion